Abstract

PEREZ G, Jorge Iván; GONZALEZ C, Karen Lorena  and  LOPERA C, Mauricio. Prediction models of frailty business: Application to the Colombian case for 2011. Perf. de Coyunt. Econ. [online]. 2013, n.22, pp.205-228. ISSN 1657-4214.

The objective of this work is the estimation of a model that allows measure the probability that a company enters bankruptcy risk. To accomplish this objective, we used the financial statements reported by companies to the Superintendencia de Sociedades in 2011. Of these states were constructed financial indicators that were useful as explanatory variables in the estimation of binary regression models, from which we identified as relevant financial ratios of return on assets, asset turnover and level of indebtedness to measure the probability of bankruptcy risk. Besides the estimated model correctly classified the 83.20% and 80.80% of companies depending on the model used.

Keywords : Bankruptcy; Fragility; Financial Indicators; Probit Model; Logit Model.

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