Resumen

MOYANO PACHECO, Manuel  y  TRUJILLO MENDOZA, Humberto Manuel. Critical incidents of urban violence linked to Islamist radicalism in Spain: simulation and analysis of a scenario. Univ. Psychol. [online]. 2016, vol.15, n.1, pp.193-204. ISSN 1657-9267.  https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeri-ana.upsy15-1.icvu.

The threat of Islamist radicalism and terrorism derived ideologically have become structural problems that will endure in the coming years, no sign of having a short term solution. In the context of the European Union, and in Spain in particular, there are indicators that suggest the possibility that in the near future will intensify the critical incidents of urban violence, anchored in Islam-Western cultural identities key conflict are numerous. This fact, in addition to being negative for coexistence and social cohesion could be exploited by the global strategies of the most extreme Islamist movements. In order to carry out proactive measures that minimize social polarization and citizenship radicalization, we simulate a scenario as a plausible hypothesis which is evaluated from a psychosocial perspective using a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats). We concluded with the response to some questions that we consider useful for decision-making of policymakers and with a basic strategic lines from a point of view of the management of public security.

Palabras clave : Islamist radicalization; jihadism; urban violence; SWOT analysis; strategy; scenario.

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