Abstract

Seasonal variation of the homicide mortality in Colombia, from 1985 to 2001. Colomb. Med. [online]. 2008, vol.39, n.2, pp.154-160. ISSN 1657-9534.

Introduction: The homicide in Colombia had an exponential increase from 1986 on, with epidemic proportions in 1991, when eight of each 10.000 Colombians were assassinated. After this situation, has occurred a reduction, conserving in any case very high rates. This cause of death, is the indicator of a complex violence, aggravated, in addition, by its more than 50 years of duration. Objective: To evaluate the homicide mortality seasonal variation in Colombia, from 1985 to 2001. Materials and methods: Deaths by homicide between January, 1985 and December, 2001 were studied. With the aid of the SSS1 program, an analysis of temporary series was run using iterative procedures for an ARIMA model construction. Results: The mean monthly homicide mortality rate was 5.26 per 100,000 (minimum 2.41 in April of 1985 and maximum 8.67 in December of 1992). An increase was observed from 1991 to 1993. Several models were studied and an ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 model was selected. Conclusions: Marked annual seasonal variation was found in mortality by homicide in Colombia. The highest rates were found in December.

Keywords : Mortality rate; Homicide; Trends; Colombia; Time series.

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