Abstract

ARANGO ARANGO, Mónica A.; ARROYAVE CATANO, Elizabeth T.  and  HERNANDEZ, Juan D.. Financial Risk Valuation (CFAR)in EPS's through Real Options: An Application at the IV Assistance Level. Rev. ing. univ. Medellín [online]. 2011, vol.10, n.19, pp.125-135. ISSN 1692-3324.

Number of patients treated for renal failure in Colombia is increasingly high; for this reason, knowing the costs associated to this disease is a clear need for Health Promoting Entities with the purpose of assuring stability of the Health Social Security System. Through real options, this article is a financial evaluation of the possibility of conducting a kidney transplant in a patient being under a renal failure treatment and the cash flow at risk when having this as an option. It was found that when a periodical analysis of costs associated to continuation of treatment is made, there are cases where transplant is a more efficient option to be executed since the present value of the patient's expenses is decreased, thus improving the cash flow at risk and controlling future expenses of the entity treating the patient.

Keywords : real options; cash flow at risk; Montecarlo Simulation; renal failure.

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