Resumen

PEREZ, RICARDO ALBERTO; MOSQUERA, SILVIO ANDRÉS  y  BRAVO, JUAN JOSÉ. APPLICATION OF FORECAST MODELS IN PRODUCTS OF MASSIVE CONSUMPTION. Rev.Bio.Agro [online]. 2012, vol.10, n.2, pp.117-125. ISSN 1692-3561.

The common inventory problem eventually arises: excessive quantities of product that do not circulate and a few of them that circulate that, along with the great variety of references and points of purchase, make difficult the application of forecasting models and the generation of inventory policies. The historic behavior of the mass consumption product demand in a supply chain with a warehouse and multiple points of purchase (One Warehouse N Retailer Problem) was evaluated. Starting from the analysis of the existing classification system of items a new proposal was made with a greater amount of decision-making elements based on the previous aspect and through simulation. The most appropriate forecasting method was also chosen (Moving average, simple exponential smoothing, the Croston method, the Winters method) for each element and for each one of the categories, considering as a decision factor the one that obtained the smallest variation of coefficient. The research allows to concluding that, due to the particularities in the product rotation and the heterogeneous behavior of the product demand in each place of distribution, it is convenient to carry out a classification for each point and to define forecasting models individually.

Palabras clave : ABC classification; Supply chain; Inventories; Logistic.

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