Abstract

RENTERIA, DARWIN MENA; RAMOS, MIGUEL ÁNGEL CAÑÓN  and  RODRIGUEZ, ANA MARÍA SUÁREZ. Modeling The Impacts Of The Scenarios Of Climate Change In The Basin Of The Pamplonita River In North Of Santander. Rev.EIA.Esc.Ing.Antioq [online]. 2020, vol.17, n.33, pp.182-193. ISSN 1794-1237.  https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v17i33.1265.

The following study presents the results obtained from a hydrological modeling carried out in the Pamplonita river basin, Colombia; The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the area are determined, using global circulation models (GCM) along with the representative concentration trajectories (RCP) for the projection of climate. The variables of precipitation, temperature and flow evaluated for the current conditions and for the scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were integrated. The future climatological series, from 2015 to 2100, were generated by means of the scale reduction methodology based on the statistical method of chaos theory based on the data obtained from the global circulation model CCMS4. The data obtained was then used as input to the modeling tool for Latin America and the Caribbean Hydro-BID.

Keywords : Climate change; Reduction of scale; Hydro BID; GCM; RCP; Theory of chaos.

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