Resumo

ARDILA DUARTE, Gerardo. A Proposal of Early Warnings to Ameliorate Common Homicide in Colombia. Rev. Crim. [online]. 2009, vol.51, n.1, pp.113-127. ISSN 1794-3108.

In order to alert police officers and citizens, this application of Poisson distribution was created. Such application shows the probability of homicide occurrence by municipality and year through an early warning system aimed at ameliorating this social predicament. Readers and government bodies may know in advance places in a situation of alert with a high probability of occurrence of ten or more homicides per 100,000 inhabitants (epidemic rate, OAS) in order to stop on time the likely growth of such a rate during 2009. The National Police information system on statistics, crime, offenses, and operations was used to carry out this research including the figures for common homicide recorded in the 2003-2008 period

Palavras-chave : homicide; National Police; Colombia; early warnings system; crime statistics.

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