Abstract

SUMANO RODRIGUEZ, José Andrés  and  JIMENEZ SANCHEZ, Fernando. Impact of the 2021 electoral process on intentional homicides in Mexico: an interrupted time series analysis. Rev. Crim. [online]. 2023, vol.65, n.2, pp.71-85.  Epub Nov 13, 2023. ISSN 1794-3108.  https://doi.org/10.47741/17943108.485.

This research paper- analyses the impact of the 2021 electoral process on the levels of intentional homicides. Interrupted time series were used to evaluate changes in the level and trend of intentional homicides since the beginning of the electoral process. Three states were analysed: Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Guerrero. Control groups were formed with cases from the states of Coahuila, Durango and Oaxaca. The results show that the electoral process did not lead to a statistically significant change in the trends and/or level of intentional homicides, but it is possible to observe an increase in intentional homicides one month before the election in each of the cases. In other words, although the changes in intentional homicides are not sustained, the month before the election does show a significant increase in this crime.

Keywords : Security, elections; homicide; violence; intentional homicides; Mexico.

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