Introduction:

Currently, there are many fluctuations in the global economic environment and the demand and supply of assets or products act as a force that determines the prices according to which they are bought and sold, but sometimes, the price reflected in an action does not it reflects the price of generating value over time.

Objective:

Assess the performance and evolution of the financial multiples in the time of the company Ecopetrol de Colombia, projecting the price of the stock in the secondary market to five years.

Material and methods:

Five phases were considered: analysis of the information provided by Bloomberg of the Ecopetrol company, generation of a structure of weighting of the financial multiples through a first Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model, projection of the variables used in the valuation for the next five years, calculation of the financial multiples of the theoretical results and finally perform Montecarlo simulations based on probabilistic distributions established for each input variable

Results:

With the values obtained through the simulation and the price of the action in the secondary market, a Relative Comparison Indicator (CRI) was calculated, with the intention of establishing projections through a second Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model, achieving a novel procedure of medium-term estimate of the share value for the company Ecopetrol in five (5) future years: from 2016 to 2020.

Conclusions:

Through this procedure, it was possible to verify and apply the valuation of companies through financial multiples, without the need to use comparable companies or competitors in the same market.

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