Resumo

MUNOZ, Enrique; TUME, Pedro  e  ORTIZ, Gabriel. Uncertainty in rainfall input data in a conceptual water balance model: effects on outputs and implications for predictability. Earth Sci. Res. J. [online]. 2014, vol.18, n.1, pp.69-75. ISSN 1794-6190.  https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v18n1.38760.

As hydrological models become more prevalent in water resources planning and management, increasing levels of detail and precision are needed. Currently, reliable models that simulate the hydrological behavior of a basin are indispensable; however, it is also necessary to know the limits of the predictability and reliability of the model outputs. The present study evaluates the influence of uncertainty in the main input variable of the model, rainfall, on the output uncertainty of a hydrological model. Using concepts of identifiability and sensitivity, the uncertainty in the model structure and parameters was estimated. Then, the output uncertainty caused by uncertainties in i) the rainfall amounts and ii) the periods of the rainfall was determined. The main conclusion is that uncertainty in rainfall estimation during rainy periods produces greater output uncertainty. However, in non-rainy periods, the output uncertainty is not very sensitive to the uncertainty in rainfall. Finally, uncertainties in rainfall during the basin filling and emptying periods (Apr. - Jun. and Sep. - Nov., respectively) alter the uncertainty in subsequent periods. Therefore, uncertainties in these periods could result in limited ranges of model predictability.

Palavras-chave : Uncertainty; hydrological predictability; surface hydrology; water resources.

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