Abstract

RANGEL-ALVAREZ, Luis Roberto  and  VERA-GOMEZ, Eddgar Alfonso. When Colombian rebels negotiate: strategic indicators of the FARC peace agreement. Entramado [online]. 2023, vol.19, n.2, e8.  Epub Oct 30, 2023. ISSN 1900-3803.  https://doi.org/10.18041/1900-3803/entramado.2.8832.

Why did groups like FARC sign a peace agreement while other groups like ELN refuse to do so? The answer to this question is linked to the concept of a tipping point, which is the point at which events take a crucial turn toward their outcome. The National Security Research Division (RAND) determined strategic indicators common to tipping points in 89 counterinsurgency conflicts to promote and identify the arrival of this final phase of the conflict. This work presents a qualitative analysis methodology based on these indicators of insurgency weakening that suggest possible outcomes of counterinsurgency conflicts. These indicators are related to information on the dynamics of the Colombian conflict, which allows validation of certain strategic conditions that enabled the negotiated exit from the conflict with FARC. The conclusions include eight indicators present in the course of the conflict without which the peace agreement would not have been possible in the Type II outcome: Government Wins. The study proposes criteria for conflict evaluation and management.

Keywords : Peace; international conflict; conflict resolution; Peace Agreements.

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