Abstract

SANCHEZ LOPEZ, Fernando  and  CRUZ MARCELO, José Nabor. INTERNATIONAL HIKING AND KIDNAPPINGS IN THE MEXICAN BORDERLINE, 1997-2016. rev.relac.int.estrateg.segur. [online]. 2017, vol.12, n.1, pp.237-266. ISSN 1909-3063.  https://doi.org/10.18359/ries.2471.

The last years have been marked by a strong positive tendency concerning the arrival of international tourists to Mexico, something that was reflected on international statistics according to which the aforementioned country is among the tenth most important countries in relation to receiving tourists. However, the arrival of international hikers to the borderline region has significantly decreased. Such negative tendency, although initially connected to the terrorist attacks in New York City in September 2001, deepened due to the increase of kidnappings registered in the borderline states. Hence, in this work the relation between kidnappings and hiking in the Mexican borderline is analyzed. The study was carried out by means of a Vector Auto-Regressive Structural Model, considering the kidnappings in frontier states, hikers in the borderline, and the American GDP. The results obtained are coherent with the theory of tourism, as they show that the higher the increase in kidnappings the lower the arrival of tourists, while the contrary happens when it comes to the increase in the American economy.

Keywords : Borderline hiking; Kidnappings; SVAR.

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