Resumo

JIMENEZ, Camilo et al. Proposal of a Predictive Model of Mortality in the Emergency Room in Addition to the Usual Triage System in a Teaching Hospital in Bogotá, Colombia. Univ. Med. [online]. 2021, vol.62, n.3, pp.28-35.  Epub 30-Jun-2021. ISSN 0041-9095.  https://doi.org/10.11144/javeriana.umed62-3.tria.

Triage allows priorization of patients according to their medical urgency. Multiple triage systems have been developed in the world. We propose a statistical model using triage to create an alert system related to mortality rates that could be used as a screening tool during triage. A prospective cohort of 6438 adults who were admitted to the emergency room of Hospital Universitario San Ignacio between 03/01/2018 and /02/28/2019 was used. The data was divided into “training” and “testing”. A bivariate logistic regression between triage and mortality using “training” data was done. Afterwards, a multivariate logistic regression was downgraded using the previous information. In order to find the set point, an Area Under the Curve (ROC) was calculated using the “testing data”. The efficiency was evaluated using measures of association. Three different ROC models were created: “triage” which showed an ROC-0.82, “reduced” with an ROC-0.90 and “age+systolic” with an ROC-0.87, thereby not exhibiting significant difference. The reduced model was chosen, presenting sensitivity of 0.869, specificity of 0.842, PPV 0.062, and NPV 0.998. A set point was chosen according to significant variables, demonstrating a higher mortality rate in those classified as triage 1-2, those over 58 years old, and those presenting with SBP below 117mmHg. Our final model could be useful as an additional screening measure for patients within the same triage classification as an alert system for mortality.

Palavras-chave : emergency medical services; emergency medicine; triage; mortality; health status indicators.

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