Abstract

ESPINOSA ACUNA, Oscar Andrés  and  VACA GONZALEZ, Paola Andrea. CAUSES OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN COLOMBIA DURING THE XXI CENTURY EVIDENCE FROM A COINTEGRATED VAR-X MODEL. rev. econ. Caribe [online]. 2014, n.14, pp.90-115. ISSN 2011-2106.

This research examines the possible determinants of unemployment in Colombia in the 21st century, by using a cointegrated VAR-X. Cointegration analysis statistically casts a long-term relationship between the variables: terms of trade, real sales, labor productivity, employment, real wages and unemployment. The estimation of the model and the results of impulse response analysis, allow concluding that real sales are an important factor for unemployment in the short term, while productivity is important in the medium and long term. This analysis is confirmed by the results obtained from the variance decomposition.

Keywords : Unemployment; Colombia; cointegrated VAR-X; Impulse Response Analysis; Variance Decomposition.

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