Abstract

GARZA, Néstor. The spatial and long term evolution of land prices in a latin american metropolis: the case of bogotá, colombia. rev. econ. Caribe [online]. 2016, n.18, pp.11-35. ISSN 2011-2106.

ABSTRACT We perform a time series analysis of the intra-urban spatial distribution and the long-term dynamics of land prices in Bogotá. We build a tractable database from a public information source, by spatially and non-spatially clustering zones into general components following their own statistical distribution. The method tries to diminish the effect of the Unit Areal Selection Problem. We compare the performance of the corrected and non-corrected time-series in different estimation exercises. The time-series exercises detect the effect of macroeconomic policy and planning conditions on the land prices during the period 1960-2010. Granger causality results suggest that the Colombian GDP is a strong determinant of the prices, while the real exchange rate is weakly related. Three sub-periods were used to perform alternative estimation exercises: developmental period (1960-1973), developmental with incentive to construction industry (UPAC) (1974-1990), and the neoliberal period (1991-2010).

Keywords : Land Price; Land Market; Time Series; Bogota; Spatial Analysis.

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