Abstract

BARRIENTOS MARIN, Jorge  and  TORO MARTINEZ, Mónica. ON THE FUNDAMENTALS OF ELECTRIC ENERGY PRICE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR COLOMBIA. rev. econ. Caribe [online]. 2017, n.19, pp.33-59. ISSN 2011-2106.

In this paper, we are interested in investigating the market fundamentals that influences energy prices formation in Colombia and evaluating the impact of the some market variables on the behavior of energy price by estimating the impulse-response function. To this end we estimate VAR specification. In addition, we carried out an exploratory analysis for forecasting the future energy prices in the next 10 years. Our main conclusion is that the set of variables which most affects the evolution of the energy prices is the hydrology and the declared availability. About the forecasting, we found that the energy prices going to increase for the next years with a kind of fall around 2018 just for recovery ahead.

JEL CODES: C22, C53, D43, L94, Q47.

Keywords : Spot market; electricity prices; VAR; forecasting; impulse response function.

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