Abstract

GOMEZ SANCHEZ, ANDRÉS MAURICIO  and  ASTAIZA GOMEZ, JOSÉ GABRIEL. EX-POST EQUITY RISK PREMIUMS AND ECONOMIC CYCLES IN COLOMBIA: AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH USING KALMAN AND HODRICK-PRESCOTT FILTERS. Finanz. polit. econ. [online]. 2015, vol.7, n.1, pp.109-129. ISSN 2248-6046.  https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2015.7.1.6.

This article investigates the relationship between ex-post Equity Risk Premium (ERP) on the Colombian stock market and the economic cycles observed in the country using methodologies based on the Hodrick-Prescott and Kalman filters. Accordingly, a short-term econometric model is put forward for each filter, incorporating monthly data from 2008 to 2014. This reveals better adjustments in the case of the Kalman filter. Furthermore, the models show that the relationship between variables that reflect economic activity and ERP are counter-cyclical but not simultaneous, with a lag of up to two periods.

Keywords : risk premium; economic activity; economic cycle; Kalman filter; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Colombian stock market.

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