Resumo

RAFFO LOPEZ, Leonardo; HERNANDEZ GARCIA, Edwin A.  e  DIAZ ESPANA, Víctor A.. The Pacific Alliance and the potential effects of a Trans-Pacific Economic Cooperation Agreement without the United States. Finanz. polit. econ. [online]. 2018, vol.10, n.1, pp.65-110. ISSN 2248-6046.  https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2018.10.1.3.

This article analyzes the possible consequences of the entry into force of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) without the United States for the countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA). It develops a descriptive analysis of the evolution of trade between PA countries and TPP member countries during the period 1980-2015. Gravitational models are also estimated to empirically examine the determinants of trade flows in these countries. As a result, the paper shows that TPP may favor trade flows in PA countries, and that the withdrawal of the U.S. from TPP would not affect these trade flows.

JEL: F10, F13, F14, F15, F17

Palavras-chave : international trade; Pacific Alliance; Trans-Pacific Partnership; free trade agreements; comparative advantage; gravity model.

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