Abstract

ROSAS ROJAS, Eduardo  and  MIMBRERA DELGADO, Mónica C.. Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility in Mexico (1969-2017). Ens. Econ. [online]. 2018, vol.28, n.53, pp.37-64. ISSN 0121-117X.  https://doi.org/10.15446/ede.v28n53.75057.

During the 1990's, the Mexican economy underwent several changes in monetary and exchange rate policies that ended up in the adoption of the inflation targeting scheme in 2001. Although this monetary regime has been successful in reducing the inflation rate, a poor economic performance has also been observed. This research examines how inflation, inflationary uncertainty and exchange rate volatility are related under a framework of credibility, transparency and independence of the Bank of México. The results of the SARMA-GARCH models and their E-GARCH-M extension show that the stabilization hypothesis of Holland and Friedman-Ball is fulfilled, which implies that the Bank of México has sought to achieve its inflation target through an appreciation of the exchange rate and a reduction of its volatility.

JEL: C51, C55, E31, F31.

Keywords : inflation uncertainty; inflation; independence; transparency; exchange rate volatility.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )