Abstract

VACA-GONZALEZ, Paola Andrea. Calculation and Evaluation of Operational Risk in Health Care Providers Based on the Bayesian Networks Model. Ens. Econ. [online]. 2019, vol.29, n.55, pp.205-233.  Epub Mar 14, 2020. ISSN 0121-117X.  https://doi.org/10.15446/ede.v29n55.78411.

The aim of this work is to quantify the operational risk of a health care provider in Colombia, so that we can manage exposure to this risk. To this effect, we use the Bayesian Networks model, which is based on graphs and probability theories, and is suitable for modeling operational losses, since it allows us to incorporate additional information from experts in operational processes into the model, to complement historical information, and thus improve the calculation of this type of risk. In addition, this model allows us 1) to identify the dependency relationships between the factors that create an operational risk, and 2) to visualize these relationships by means of graphs. The Bayesian networks method is evaluated by means of a simulated exercise, based on the information given by experts about the internal operational process in a health care provider. Findings show that Bayesian Networks allow identification of the risk factors that mainly impact the occurrence of a failure in an operational process, which helps to focus the decision making process and to predict the effects of these measures, generating more efficient results in the management of this type of risk.

JEL: G32; I15; C11; C45.

Keywords : operational risk; Bayesian networks; graphs theory; health entities; risk management; risk computation.

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