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Revista Colombiana de Estadística
versão impressa ISSN 0120-1751
Rev.Colomb.Estad. vol.42 no.1 Bogotá jan./jun. 2019 Epub 23-Maio-2019
https://doi.org/10.15446/rce.v42n1.66279
Artículos originales de investigación
Bayesian Estimation of the Limiting Availability in a Repairable One-Unit System
Estimación Bayesiana de la disponibilidad límite en un sistema reparable uni-componente
a Escuela de Administración, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. E-mail: ctvasque@uc.cl
b Departamento de Matemática y Ciencia de la Computación, Facultad de Ciencia, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile. E-mail: victor.salinas@usach.cl
c SHORE & Whariki Research Centre, College of Health, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand. E-mail: j.romeo@massey.ac.nz
This work presents a Bayesian approach for estimating the limiting availability of an one-unit repairable system. A Bayesian analysis is developed considering an informative prior and a less informative prior distribution, respectively. Simulations are presented to study the performance of the Bayesian solutions. The maximum likelihood method is also revisited. Finally, a case study is considered, the Bayesian methodology is applied to estimate the limiting availability of a palletizer, which is used in the packaging of glass bottles. Extensions to a coherent system are also discussed.
Key words: Conjugate analysis; Coherent system; Exponential and Gamma distributions; Generalized Beta distribution
En este trabajo se presenta un enfoque bayesiano para estimar la disponibilidad límite de un sistema reparable uni-componente. Un análisis bayesiano es desarrollado considerando distribuciones a priori informativa y poco informativa, respectivamente. Simulaciones son presentadas para estudiar el desempeño de las soluciones bayesianas. El método de máxima verosimilitud también es reconsiderado. Finalmente, un caso de estudio es considerado, la metodología bayesiana es aplicada para estimar la disponibilidad límite de un paletizador. el cual es usado en el embalaje de botellas de vidrio. Extensiones a un sistema coherente, también son discutidas.
Palabras clave: Análisis conjugado; Distribuciones Exponencial y Gamma; Distribución Beta generalizada; Sistema coherente
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Received: June 2017; Accepted: November 2018
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
