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Revista Colombiana de Estadística

versão impressa ISSN 0120-1751

Rev.Colomb.Estad. vol.42 no.1 Bogotá jan./jun. 2019  Epub 23-Maio-2019

http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/rce.v42n1.66279 

Artículos originales de investigación

Bayesian Estimation of the Limiting Availability in a Repairable One-Unit System

Estimación Bayesiana de la disponibilidad límite en un sistema reparable uni-componente

Cristián A. Vásqueza  , Víctor H Salinas-Torresb  , José S. Romeoc 

a Escuela de Administración, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. E-mail: ctvasque@uc.cl

b Departamento de Matemática y Ciencia de la Computación, Facultad de Ciencia, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile. E-mail: victor.salinas@usach.cl

c SHORE & Whariki Research Centre, College of Health, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand. E-mail: j.romeo@massey.ac.nz

Abstract

This work presents a Bayesian approach for estimating the limiting availability of an one-unit repairable system. A Bayesian analysis is developed considering an informative prior and a less informative prior distribution, respectively. Simulations are presented to study the performance of the Bayesian solutions. The maximum likelihood method is also revisited. Finally, a case study is considered, the Bayesian methodology is applied to estimate the limiting availability of a palletizer, which is used in the packaging of glass bottles. Extensions to a coherent system are also discussed.

Key words: Conjugate analysis; Coherent system; Exponential and Gamma distributions; Generalized Beta distribution

Resumen

En este trabajo se presenta un enfoque bayesiano para estimar la disponibilidad límite de un sistema reparable uni-componente. Un análisis bayesiano es desarrollado considerando distribuciones a priori informativa y poco informativa, respectivamente. Simulaciones son presentadas para estudiar el desempeño de las soluciones bayesianas. El método de máxima verosimilitud también es reconsiderado. Finalmente, un caso de estudio es considerado, la metodología bayesiana es aplicada para estimar la disponibilidad límite de un paletizador. el cual es usado en el embalaje de botellas de vidrio. Extensiones a un sistema coherente, también son discutidas.

Palabras-clave: Análisis conjugado; Distribuciones Exponencial y Gamma; Distribución Beta generalizada; Sistema coherente

Full text available only in PDF format.

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Recebido: Junho de 2017; Aceito: Novembro de 2018

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