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Revista de Ingeniería

versão impressa ISSN 0121-4993  no.37 Bogotá jul./dez. 2012


The European Emerging Risk Radar Initiative – a Future Possibility for Latin America?

Iniciativa europea del radar para riesgos emergentes - ¿una posibilidad a futuro para América Latina?

Aleksandar Jovanovic(1)*, Daniel Balos(2)*, Flor Angela Quintero(3)*

(1) Prof. Dr. Ing. European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management, Stuttgart, Germany.

(2) Dr. Ing.

(3) Ing.

(*) Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies GmbH, Stuttgart, Germany.

Recibido 16 de noviembre de 2012, aprobado 4 de diciembre de 2012.


Riesgo emergente, radar de riesgo, nuevas tecnologías.


El proyecto de la Unión Europea (UE): Reconocimiento temprano, monitoreo y gestión integral de riesgos emergentes relacionados con las nuevas tecnologías -iNTeg-Risk ha desarrollado un pragmático e inusual enfoque para un marco integral en la gestión de riesgos emergentes. El principal objetivo de este trabajo fue desarrollar una serie de soluciones específicas e innovadoras aplicando buenos principios de gestión de riesgos y elaborar soluciones más genéricas e integradas, que todas juntas, nos permitan "entender mejor cómo gestionar los riesgos emergentes en un mundo incierto y complejo"

El presente artículo presenta una visión general de los diferentes resultados y herramientas desarrolladas a través del proyecto iNTeg-Risk, resaltando algunos logros muy importantes en relación con riesgos emergentes en el área de seguridad de los procesos tales como la regasificación de LNG, operaciones remotas, eventos NaTech, entre otros. Con el fin de asegurar sostenibilidad de los resultados de iNTeg-Risk, el radar europeo de riesgos emergente (E2R2) es una iniciativa prevista como uno de los caminos potenciales para el reconocimiento temprano, monitoreo y gestión de riesgos emergentes.


Emerging risk, risk radar, new technologies


The EU project: Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging, New Technology Related, Risks – iNTeg-Risk, has developed a pragmatic and unusual approach for an integrated emerging risk management framework. The main objective was to develop a series of specific innovative solutions by applying good risk management principles and elaborate more generic and integrated solutions which all together enable us to "better understand how to manage emerging risk in a very uncertain and complex world".

The paper provides an overview of the different results and tools achieved in iNTeg-Risk project, highlighting some very important achievements regarding emerging risks in the area of process safety such as LNG regasification, remote operations, NaTech events, among others. In order to ensure sustainability of the iNTeg-Risk results, the European Emerging Risk Radar (E2R2) is an initiative envisaged as one of the potential ways by focusing on early recognition, monitoring and management of emerging risks.


In order to ensure the main EU goal to be the world leading knowledge-based society, the EU has to ensure that technologies and products developed are accepted by stakeholders in industry and society. Acceptance can be reached only if stakeholders are convinced that possible or perceived emerging risks related to these technologies can be managed in safe, sustainable and transparent way. The term emerging risks refers to new and /or increasing risks, by which there is lack of confidence in the ability of industry and authorities to identify and manage [1].

By ‘new‘ is meant that:

a) the risk did not previously exist and is caused by new processes, new technologies, new types of workplace, or social or organizational change; or

b) a long-standing issue is newly considered as a risk due to change in social or public perception; or,

c) new scientific knowledge allows a long-standing issue to be identified as a risk.

The risk is ‘increasing‘ if the:

i. number of hazards leading to the risk is growing; or the,

ii. likelihood of exposure to the hazard leading to the risk is increasing; or the,

iii. effect of the hazard is getting worse (severity of consequences and/or the extent of human values affected).

Transparency of the work and of the solutions delivered in the projects is required both by the public bodies behind the research and the general public. The transparency is a precondition for having the research and innovation perceived as balanced, fair and beneficial for the society. What is "beneficial for the society" is, however, not a term precisely defined and it can be a topic of profound differences in opinions among different stakeholders groups in a society. Especially the question "is a particular innovation (e.g. a new technology – e.g. nanotechnology, new materials or new energy production technologies) beneficial for the society" often cannot be answered in a simple and straightforward way, most often because the question is posed in the reversed way: "how can one be sure that the innovation will not involve risks which one does not want to accept", the question leading to the so called precautionary principle, "better safe than sorry". This principle is well rooted in Europe and in the EU policies on the highest level and in a formal way. But the practical implementation of the general principles poses a lot of challenges and leads to different solutions.

The main goal of the iNTeg-Risk project [2], is to improve the ability of the EU industry, society and authorities to identify, monitor and manage emerging risks. The project improves chances of market success of European innovation and new technologies developed in the EU. The project has proposed a new management paradigm for emerging risks as a set of principles supported by agreed tools and methods all integrated into a single framework. The main aim is to reduce time-to-market for the new technologies "made in EU" and promote safety, security, environmental friendliness and social responsibility as a competitive advantage and a trademark of the EU technologies within the next 15 years.

The "EU response" proposed by the project is based on 17 individual applications of new technologies like nano, H2 technologies, underground storage of CO2, new materials, etc, which all are named as: ERRAs - Emerging Risk Representative Applications in EU Industry. The solutions are being generalized and used for the framework, which is validated in a second application cycle. Overall solutions are made available to the users in the form of the iNTeg-Risk "1StopShop" for EU solutions addressing emerging risks. The solution includes issues of early recognition and monitoring of emerging risks, communication, governance, prestandardization, education & training, dissemination, as well as new tools such as Safetypedia, RiskAtlas of Emerging Risks, Reference Library, etc.

The main purpose of the present paper is to highlight the most important results and tools developed in the project in order to be able to identify the possible future collaboration with stakeholders in Latin America, especially for those emerging risks having the more "globalization" character.


Emerging Risks Representative (industrial) Applications (ERRAs) are significant examples of applications related to industrial safety (emerging risks). Solutions for the these single, specific problems related to emerging risks should allow to capitalize upon and, by generalizing the solutions, build the common European approach to emerging risk. ERRAs are grouped around emerging risks related to categories shown in Table 1.

Table 1. ERRAs from iNTeg-Risk project

ERRAs, such as Liquefed Natural Gas, Remote Operations in Sensitive Areas, Outsourcing and NaTech, are important for process safety with very high global impact. Due to the specifed audience of the present paper, we will mention some of the results achieved in iNTeg-Risk project accordingly to the above mentioned ERRAs [3-6].

Liquid Natural Gas (LGN)regasification in sensitive areas on-shore and offshore

• Technologies related to the foating and off-shore LNG terminals are now tackling the market of the new regasification plants in Europe and in the US. Within the iNTeg-Risk Project, the emerging risks related to safety and security of new and alternative technologies for LNG regasification were explored and solutions based on very complete catalogue of LNG risk models and methods were developed [3].

Remote Operations in Environmentally Sensitive Areas

• The purpose of this ERRA consists in describing early warning indicators of emerging risks focused on avoiding accidents (with potential oil spills). The main focus is placed in production of oil and gas with the use of integrated operations in environmentally sensitive areas. The challenge of managing risk at an acceptable level is amplifed by the harsh climate, strict environmental requirements and sensitive environment areas. Within iNTeg-Risk project, it has used two approaches for the development of early warnings, a safety performance based approach developed by HSE (2006) – the socalled "dual assurance" approach, and a resilience based approach denoted REWI – Resilience based Early Warning indicators method [4].


• When large industries run their operations on specialized subcontractors performing activities independently, safety must be managed and coordinated across organizational boundaries. Outsourcing and subcontracting have been considered as emerging risk issues due to the fragmentation and coordination of work appears to pose challenges to safety management. The main task of this ERRA is to identify, generalize and describe recommendations and good practices concerning parts of safety management which addresses outsourcing and subcontracting. The ERRA proposes an analysis of risk related to subcontracting and a model for safe outsourcing and subcontracting (guideline for establishing good practice in safety management addressing subcontracting of safety-criticatasks) [5],[6].


• NaTech accident is defined by a chemical emergency caused by a natural hazard or a natural disaster. The main results of this ERRA within the project are:

• Handbook of Good Practices for the Mitigation of NaTech risk,

• New NaTech Risk Analysis Method, resulting of the combination between QRA CONPRICI method and INERIS Bow Tie Method,

• Development of specifed Key Performance Indicators for NaTech. The Key performance indicators cover different safety measures and emergency response in the felds of earthquake, fooding, lightning and forest fres [7].


The project has successfully finished the bulk of its work and achieved significant results. The following are the main results of the project until May 2012 [8, 11].


• It is a system for mapping of emerging and other risks with over 200 layers of data related to hazards and vulnerabilities, such as earthquakes, hazardous materials, industrial plants and similar; the emerging risks can be "recognized" by screening the list of calculated "risk distances" for the hazard-vulnerability pairs of points in the respective layers (See Figure 1.). Benefts of using RiskAtlas are the following:

• Data quality enhancement

• Data sharing

• Extensive and up to date

• Trigger for control and enforcement

• Setting priorities according to risk grade

• Communication on risks

• Administrative responsibilities

• Reinforcement of the safety chain

• Providing transparent government information


• It is a database system for acquisition and monitoring of early warnings. From the first "notions" indicating that something can become a threat, RiskEars enables to manage and follow the further development or maturation of the notion towards a full-scale risk. The approx. 900 "notions" collected so far are analyzed in the project.


• Is a monitoring tool to identify/locate/assess the risk according to the criticality and includes the following groups:

• Risk Radar Environmental

• Socio-political

• Economic/Financial

• Regulatory/Legal

• Technological

Risks are categorized in fve clusters (See Figure 2.), with the distance from the center of the radar indicating the criticality of the issue. A sample of notions (via the browser) can be selected and the selection for comparison can be displayed, or the most critical Ris-kTweet entries can be automatically retrieved. RiskRadar provides the way to visualize and analyze the notions in RiskEars. In addition, it feeds RiskEars with the inputs from web-analysis such as, on-line analysis of web contents, social networks monitoring, Twitter monitoring, scientific abstracts monitoring, etc.

CEN Workshop Agreement (CWA):

• iNTeg-Risk Consortium has started the work on a CEN Workshop Agreement aimed to the standardization of approaches to analysis of emerging risks. A liaison between this activity and ISO PC262 (ISO 31000) has been established.

• About 20 other new applications/ tools, including, for instance, the "Intelligent Agent Based New Technology Acceptance Analyzer" are all part of "iNTeg-Risk 1StopShop", the project web and delivery platform [12]. Based on these results, the E2R2 initiative has come up with one of the potential ways to ensure sustainability of iNTeg-Risk results [1-3], focusing on early recognition, monitoring and management of emerging risks.


Solution from the Emerging Risk Representative Applications (ERRAs) have been generalized and have been used in the definition for the Emerging Risk Management Framework (ERMF) implemented in the iNTeg-Risk 1StopShop and its main elements [13]. According to the definition of emerging risk proposed by the EU-OSHA[1], the 1StopShop offers a "solution" for a number of issues related to emerging risks, including early recognition of emerging risks, identification the most critical emerging risks, monitoring and optimized follow-up for the recognized emerging risks, systematic interlinking among hazards, vulnerabilities and stakeholders, etc, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The issues vs. solutons in iNTeg-Risk lStopShop



E2R2 initiative envisaged as a platform will enable the users to recognize, monitor and manage emerging risk at the European level. Understanding, avoiding and mitigation of risks constitute a strategic global advantage for the EU.

Multiple input channels for the E2R2 platform are planned to come from multiple sources such as experts opinions, scientific publications, web¬publications, social/professional networks (e.g. Twitter) and general public.

The outiputs of the E2R2 are in the same way multiple-channel, and enabling monitoring risks in time, delivering alarms and alerts (see Figure 3), providing timely and on-the-fy short information about emerging risks, statistics, scientific opinions, priority lists (e.g. the "Top 10") lists, e.g. largest risks in an application area, fastest growing risks, largest risks for the region). The Radar should also feed the online dynamic newsletters looking at issues like "Risks of the month", "Just appeared" and similar. The Web 2.0 and 3.0 solutions are envisaged for supporting the participative character of E2R2 and an open set of dedicated tools will be included or linked to it. Information on RiskRadar must ensure privacy and strict control/protection of data.

Figure 3. Illustraton of delivering alarms and alerts


Different types of risk radar have been developed since 1996, however they face problems related to the lack of public component and supporting tools, the areas of application are usually narrow and focused on specific area, and they are not based on agreed or accepted principles (frameworks, policies, etc.). In addition, the current Risk monitoring radars tend to be fragmented and cannot communicate to each other.

Some of the distinctive characteristics of the E2R2 are the following:

• It is a "radar" that can screen the horizon of the future, including identification and tracking of newly spotted risks

• Partly public and partly private

• Involvement of different stakeholders, governmental, EU organizations (e.g. OSHA, STOA, EU Scientific Committees like those dealing with i.e. health risks..), Professional Groups, national and international organizations, single industries or companies, R&D and academia

• Include, as support, the tools developed within iNTeg-Risk project such as: Safetypedia, RiskAtlas, Risk-Clock

• Multiple views, customized for different users, felds of application, and types of risks


The first prototype of the E2R2 platform will be created and will be show at the final iNTeg-Risk project conference (May 22-23, 2013). One of the prospects of the E2R2 initiative is the EU framework programme Horizon 2020 (Running from 2014 to 2020 with an 80 billion budget). The support for research and innovation under Horizon 2020 will be an excellent opportunity to promote the future development of the E2R2 initiative and extend it from the EU level to a more global application.

The E2R2 is open to the outside world, and it is envisage to explore the interest of non-European countries including Latin-American countries, China, Japan, USA and some other countries. The stakeholders from Latin American academia, industry and governmental institutions will be ap-proached, in order to learn about their interests and priorities. Future forms of cooperation will be proposed.


Following the EU-wide systematic effort to identify, monitor and manage new and emerging risks, iNTeg-Risk results give innovative and integrated solutions based on different tools, methodologies and frameworks to find better management options to deal with multiple and interconnected emerging risks.

Tools developed within the project enable to identify emerging risks (RiskRadar), monitor them (RiskEars), map them (RiskAtlas), among others.

With the new risks becoming more and more global, the general public will certainly require more information about issues of global concern (natural hazards, industrial technology, spreading diseases…) to be able to take a more active role in establishing and implementing safety related policies. As detailed in this paper, E2R2 initiative is expected to provide a source of credible and reliable information for the community, industry, SMEs, decision-makers and general public, involving not only European stakeholders but future Latin American stakeholders.


The research leading to results of the iNTeg-Risk project has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. NMP2-LA-2008-213345.


[1] OSHA. "European Risk Observatory Report - European Survey of Enterprises on New and Emerging Risks". Managing safety and health at work. Belgium: Publications Office of the European Union, 2010.         [ Links ]

[2] "iNTeg-Risk: Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging, New Technology Related Risks (2008-2013), EU FP7 project Nr. CP-IP 213345". iNTeg-Risk. Date of consultation, Oct, 2012. Available:        [ Links ]

[3] "iNTeg-Risk D1.2.4.1: Package of: Reference solution containing documents, methods and tools, for the assessment and management of emerging risks related to new and intensifed technologies available for LNG regasification terminals, EU project iNTeg-Risk, Project Nr. CP-IP 213345-2". G. Uguccioni. iNTeg-Risk. Date of consultation, Oct. 2012.        [ Links ]

[4] "iNTeg-Risk D1.4.2.1: C2: Reference solutions to provide confdence that oil and gas can be explored and produced in sensitive areas in a defendable manner by way of integrated operations managed by virtual organizations, EU project iNTeg-Risk, Project Nr. CP-IP 213345-2". K. Øien. iNTeg-Risk. Date of publication, Oct. 2012.        [ Links ]

[5] J. Thommesen, H. B. Andersen, (2011, Jun)."Risk issues and good practices related to subcontracting - Interview study. Presented in: 3rd iNTeg-Risk Conference: Risk vs. Risk - Managing Emerging Risk-Beneft Tradeoffs in Complex Systems. Available:        [ Links ]

[6] J. Thommesen, H. B. Andersen, (2011, Jun). "Safety challenges from subcontracting – Review". Presented in: 3rd iNTeg-Risk Conference: Risk vs. Risk - Managing Emerging Risk-Beneft Tradeoffs in Complex Systems. Available:        [ Links ]

[7] M. Reimeringer "iNTeg-Risk D1.5.3.1: Handbook of Good Practices for the Mitigation of NA-TECH risks, EU project iNTeg-Risk, Project Nr. CP-IP 213345-2. Stuttgart: INTeg-Risk, 2011.         [ Links ]

[8] A. Jovanovic. (2009, Jun). "iNTeg-Risk Project: Providing a basis for a harmonized EU Response to the challenges of New Technologies". Presented in: Abstracts of 1st iNTeg-Risk Conference: Dealing with Risks of Tomorrow's Technologies. Available: aspx?fle=1661         [ Links ]

[9] A. Jovanovic. (2010). "iNTeg-Risk Project: Concept and first results, Dealing with multiple and interconnected emerging risks". Presented in: 2nd iNTeg-Risk Conference: New Technologies & Emerging Risk.         [ Links ]

[10] B. Debray, M. Zarea, K. Øien, R. Rota, A. Jovanovic . (2011, Jun). "iNTeg-Risk Project : An Overview of the Results of 17 Emerging Risk Representative Applications". Presented in: 3rd iNTeg-Risk Conference & 20th SRA-Europe Meeting. Available:         [ Links ]

[11] A. Jovanovic. (2012). Status of iNTeg-Risk project and plans for ensuring sustainability of its results, Managing Early Warnings - what and how to look for? Presented in: 4th iNTeg-Risk Conference.         [ Links ]

[12] iNTeg-Risk Website,        [ Links ]

[13] A. Jovanovic, R. Schneider, D. Balos, P. Klimek, M. Löscher. (2012, Jun). The iNTeg-Risk Emerging Risk Management Framework (ERMF) and its implementation in the iNTeg-Risk One-Stop-Shop, Managing Early War-nings - what and how to look for? Presented in: Book of Abstracts of 4th iNTeg-Risk Conference. Available: flehandler.ashx?fle=8516         [ Links ]

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