<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
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<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0034-7450</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Colombiana de Psiquiatría]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[rev.colomb.psiquiatr.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0034-7450</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Asociacion Colombiana de Psiquiatria.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0034-74502007000200001</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Predictive Capacity of Psychiatric Knowledge]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Berríos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Germán E]]></given-names>
</name>
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</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Cambridge  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
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<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>183</fpage>
<lpage>185</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
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</front><body><![CDATA[  <font face="verdana" size="2">     <p align="right"><b>Editorial</b></p>       <p><b>    <center><font face="verdana" size="4">The Predictive Capacity of Psychiatric Knowledge</font></center></b></p>       <p>&nbsp;</p>   I am grateful to Dr. G&oacute;mez-Restrepo for asking me to write on the   predictive capacity of the history of psychiatry. To a large extent, an   answer to this question depends on how we define psychiatry, history   and predictive capacity. By psychiatry I shall mean the set of narratives   which (mainly Western societies) have developed to configure, explain   and manage behavioural phenomena which, on the basis of social rather   than neurobiological criteria, are defined as &#8216;deviant&#8217;. Currently,    such   narratives are predominantly medical but the alliance between medicine   and madness is also historical in origin and hence subject to social and   political avatar (that is, it may dissolved in the future). Such dissolution   would not be determined by scientific but by social factors.</p>     <p>   History refers to the set of narratives developed to capture and reconfigure   coetaneous clusters of human ideas, emotions and actions as they   occur within given spatial-temporal coordinates. In the case of the history   of psychiatry such coordinates will be determined by what is defined   (within a given period) as the relationship between society and madness.</p>     <p>   Predictive capacity refers to the power to specify in the present behavioural   formats and interactions which will occur in the future. Predictions   are harder (but more meaningful) within linear than non-linear   historiographical models. For example, within a Viconian (circular) view,   the repetition of certain ways of looking at things can be predicted with   facility but such action will mean little.</p>     <p>   The history of psychiatry can be conceived as an autonomous or as   a utilitarian discipline. According to the former, it has as its object the   understanding and explanation of how and why the language, construction   and management of &#8216;mental disorder&#8217; has developed throughout the   centuries. According to the latter, it is but a &#8216;source of errors&#8217;,    a &#8216;treasure   trove&#8217;, a &#8216;cosmetic adornment&#8217;, or a &#8216;predictive instrument&#8217;    (or all combined).   Although these two purviews are often confused, they need to be   distinguished as history has no utilitarian obligations and none should   be expected from it.</p>     <p>   The fact that (in the Braudelian sense) the history of psychiatry seems   to exhibits long, medium and short duration processes, may on occasions   induce in all of us an oracular illusion, that is, the deep feeling that we    can &#8216;see&#8217; patterns and repetitions in the evolution of psychiatry,    and that   these may allow us to predict the future. For example, it is tempting to   feel that periods of psychiatric biologism &agrave; outrance are followed by    hermeneutic   rebellions (as it was the case of late 19thC neuropsychiatry and   early 20thC Freudianism). This would lead one to predict that the current   trend to &#8216;naturalize&#8217; all psychiatric phenomena will be followed    by a period   governed by a more balanced semantic approach to mental disorder.</p>     <p>   The hidden assumptions inspiring this wishful thinking must be   made explicit. The main one is that psychiatry is an autonomous branch   of applied science that evolves according to its internal laws of logic and   its own scientific research and evidence. This view is, of course, nonsense.   Psychiatry is but a parasitical discipline whose meandering path is   not determined by internal evolutionary laws but by the vagaries of the   market, that is, by economic, social and political factors. Even its current   alliance with medicine would rapidly cease if the market found that there   are cheaper and more saleable ways of managing madness.</p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>   Of course, the economic nature of such decision will never be made   explicit for soon enough court philosophers and historians will move in to   concoct justificatory narratives which will make it appear as if the decision   has been taken on the bases of high ideals and hard-earned evidence. A   good example, is the ongoing threat to &#8216;continuity of care&#8217; one    of the sacred   principles around which British psychiatry became organized since   1948 (i.e. the desirability that the same psychiatrist should look after the   patient and his/her family). Because it is cheaper to have psychiatrists   doing only outpatients or inpatients, some British Mental Health Trusts   have now decided to do away with the continuity principle. This has been   covered up by a justificatory narrative, to wit, that it is better for a patient   to be seen by many psychiatrists as this reduces the probability of   diagnostic error!</p>     <p>   This is, of course, nonsense for psychiatry has a limited number of   &#8216;diseases&#8217;, a limited number of &#8216;treatments&#8217; and is    a &#8216;safe&#8217; discipline in   the sense that diagnostic &#8216;errors&#8217; are difficult to make and rarely    threaten   life (as they might do in other medical specialisms). Be that as it may, far   more important than the theoretical danger of &#8216;diagnostic error&#8217;    is the deep   knowledge that throughout life a psychiatrist will accumulate of his/her   patient, disease, family and social context.</p>     <p>   It is true that on occasions the history of psychiatry may uncover ideas,   treatments or approaches that were neglected either because the technology of    a given period was not up to it, or because the social standing of the   psychiatrist who postulate them was too low or because the mandarins of   the discipline had invested their reputation and money elsewhere. These   ideas, treatments or approaches can in principle be rescued and in this   sense it is said that history can be a &#8216;treasure trove&#8217;. But this    is not a   common state of affairs.</p>     <p>   In summary, each historical period has its own dominant narratives.   These achieve power for they generate financial gain to all concerned (except   the poor patients). If there is one lesson to be learned from history   is that this structural situation tends to repeat itself in the sense that in   each historical period the Establishment will appoint a particular elite   to configure and manage madness for it. Unfortunately, who these elites   will be and what narratives will they concoct, cannot predicted. All that   can be predicted is the general arrangement will repeat itself and that no   elite will last for ever.</p>     <p>   This transitoriness should be a source of hope to those who feel that   current biological fundamentalisms are not doing any good to our patients   and that such exaggerated view must be balanced by the creation of a   semantic space where we can meet those who need help.</p>     <p>   There are causes and reasons for mental affliction. Causes in the   sense that brain disorders may overwhelm their psychology. Reasons in   the sense that the life of people may become unliveable because they are   confronted with extreme situations vis-&agrave;-vis which their emotional and   semantic organization feels insufficient or impotent. The fact that in the   latter case their suffering also has &#8216;brain representation&#8217; is utterly    irrelevant   to their treatment. To be helped, these patients must be met in their own   psychological space. This is something that perhaps we cannot learn from   history but that it feels true enough to those of us who look after them.</p>          <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p align="right"><b>Germ&aacute;n E. Berr&iacute;os</b>    <br> BA (Oxford), DPhilSci (Oxford), MA (Cambridge),    <br> MD, FRCPsych, FBPsS, FMedSci     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<br>   Professor of the Epistemology of Psychiatry,    <br> University of Cambridge, UK </p>   </font>      ]]></body>
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