<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-0283</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Boletín de Geología]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Bol. geol.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-0283</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Industrial de Santander]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-02832022000100093</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18273/revbol.v44n1-2022004</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Understanding the sensitivity to the soil properties and rainfall conditions of two physically-based slope stability models]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Comprensión de la sensibilidad a las propiedades del suelo y condiciones de lluvia de dos modelos de estabilidad de taludes basados en la física]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roberto J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mattos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Álvaro J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fernández-Escobar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Camilo J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Landslide Scientific Assessment  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia Facultad de Ingeniería Escuela Ambiental]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>44</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>93</fpage>
<lpage>109</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-02832022000100093&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-02832022000100093&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-02832022000100093&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Physically-based models have been used to assess landslide susceptibility, hazard, and risk in many regions worldwide. They have also been regarded as valuable tools for landslide prediction and the development or improvement of landslide early warning systems. They are usually validated to demonstrate their predictive capacity, but they are not deeply studied regularly to understand the sensitivity of the input variables and the behavior of the models under many different rainfall scenarios. In this research paper, we studied two distributed physically-based models for shallow landslides: SLIP and Iverson. For this, the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method was used to calculate the contribution of random input variables (soil strength, unit weight, and permeability parameters) to the variance of the factor of safety. Different intensity and duration rainfall events were simulated to assess the response of the models to those rainfall conditions in terms of the factor of safety and failure probability. The results showed that the shear strength (cohesion and friction angle, in order of significance) parameters have the largest contribution to the variance in both models, but they vary depending on geological, geotechnical, and topographic conditions. The Iverson and SLIP models respond in different ways to the variation of rainfall conditions: for shorter durations (e.g. &#8804; 8 h), increasing the intensity caused more unstable areas in the SLIP model, while for longer durations the unstable areas were considerably higher for the Iverson model. Understanding those behaviors can be useful for practical and appropriate implementation of the models in landslide assessment projects.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Se han implementado modelos basados en la física para evaluar la susceptibilidad, la amenaza y el riesgo de movimientos en masa en muchas regiones del mundo. También se han considerado herramientas valiosas para la predicción de movimientos en masa y el desarrollo o mejora de sistemas de alerta temprana. Por lo general, se validan para demostrar su capacidad predictiva, pero pocas veces se estudian en profundidad para comprender la sensibilidad de las variables de entrada y el comportamiento de los modelos en diversos escenarios de lluvias. En este artículo de investigación se utilizaron dos modelos distribuidos de base física para deslizamientos superficiales: Iverson y SLIP. Para ello, se utiliza el método de first-order second moment (FOSM) para calcular la contribución de las variables de entrada aleatorias (resistencia del suelo, peso unitario y parámetros de permeabilidad) a la varianza del factor de seguridad. Se simularon eventos de lluvia de diferente intensidad y duración para evaluar la respuesta de los modelos a esas condiciones de lluvia en términos del factor de seguridad y probabilidad de falla. Los resultados mostraron que los parámetros de resistencia al corte (cohesión y ángulo de fricción, en orden de importancia) tienen la mayor contribución a la varianza en ambos modelos, pero varían según las condiciones geológicas, geotécnicas y topográficas. Los modelos Iverson y SLIP responden de diferentes maneras a la variación de las condiciones de lluvia: para duraciones más cortas (por ejemplo, &#8804; 8 h), el aumento de la intensidad provocó más áreas inestables en el modelo SLIP; mientras que, para duraciones más largas, las áreas inestables fueron considerablemente mayores para el modelo de Iverson. Comprender esos comportamientos puede ser útil para una implementación práctica y adecuada de los modelos en proyectos de evaluación de deslizamientos de tierra.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Shallow landslide]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SLIP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Iverson]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Intensity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Duration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[FOSM]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Deslizamientos superficiales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SLIP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Iverson]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Intensidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Duración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[FOSM]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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