<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-0488</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Colombiana de Entomología]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Colomb. Entomol.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-0488</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Colombiana de Entomología]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-04882003000200012</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación de la interacción entomológica-climática de la transmisión de la malaria mediante dinámica de sistemas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling entomological-climatic interaction of malaria transmission through system dynamics]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[RUIZ]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[DANIEL]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A01"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[POVEDA]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GERMÁN]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A02"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[QUIÑONES]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MARTHA LUCÍA]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A03"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[VÉLEZ]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[IVÁN DARÍO]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A03"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[RÚA]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GUILLERMO]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A03"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[ROJAS]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[WILLIAM]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A04"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[ZULUAGA]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JUAN SANTIAGO]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A04"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Ciencia y Tecnología de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A02">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Minas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A03">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="A04">
<institution><![CDATA[,Corporación para Investigaciones Biológicas (CIB)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2003</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2003</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>191</fpage>
<lpage>201</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-04882003000200012&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-04882003000200012&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-04882003000200012&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático en dinámica de sistemas para representar las interacciones entomológicas, epidemiológicas y climáticas de la transmisión de la malaria que conducen a brotes epidémicos de la enfermedad en el municipio de Nuquí, departamento del Chocó, sobre la costa pacífica colombiana. Las variables entomológicas exógenas consideradas relevantes para la representación de la incidencia han sido estimadas a partir de bioensayos y campañas de colecta de adultos (peri e intradomiciliarias). La transmisión del parásito entre las poblaciones de mosquitos y humanos durante la alimentación sanguínea ha sido representada a través de tres índices: Tasa de Inoculación Entomológica, Tasa Básica de Reproducción y Capacidad Vectorial, bajo diferentes escenarios de densidad de mosquitos. La representación de la fluctuación estacional de los vectores ha sido posible gracias a la implementación de dos módulos paralelos adicionales: disponibilidad de criaderos e interacciones predador-presa-recursos. El modelo ha sido aplicado para el período nov/1997-feb/2001 (1.200 días de horizonte de simulación), durante el cual los eventos El Niño y La Niña afectaron la hidroclimatología del país. El modelo se ha ejecutado para temperaturas y humedades relativas promedio diarias, así como valores totales diarios de precipitación registrados por una estación climatológica cercana. En el proceso de experimentación se consideraron diferentes escenarios de temperatura, además de los análisis de sensibilidad e inestabilidad. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concebir el modelo como una herramienta para el entendimiento de las relaciones ecológicas, entomológicas y epidemiológicas que conducen a los brotes epidémicos de la enfermedad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[A vector-borne disease model has been developed through system dynamics to represent the entomological, epidemiológica! and climatic interactions of malaria transmission conductive to disease outbreaks in Muquí prone-region, Chocó province, along the Pacific coast. The entomological exogenous variables considered relevant for malaria incidence have been collected from laboratory experiments and field data (indoor and outdoor captures). The parasite transmission between linking mosquitoes and vertébrate host populations during a blood meal has been represented usina three infectious disease models: the Entomological Inoculation Rate, the Basic Reproduction Rate and the Vectorial Capacity for diverse vector density scenarios. Considering a breeding place availability model and several predator-prey-food models allow us to represent the vectorial densities fluctuations observed during the fields campaigns. The comprehensive model has been applied to represent malaria incidence during the period Nov/1997-Feb/2001 (40 months, 1200 days simulation period), when both El Niño and La Nina events strongly affected the hydro-climatology of Colombia. The model has been run for observed climatic patterns such as mean daily temperatures, total daily precipitation records, and mean daily relative humidities gathered by a nearby climatological station. Diverse temperature scenarios have been considered to deepen the understanding of the entomological-climatic linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks. Sensitivity analysis and instabilities cases have been also studied during the experimentation-validation processes. Obtained results allow us to conclude that the model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the ecological, entomological, and epidemiológica! linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Simulación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[nteracciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Clima]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Dinámica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Incidencia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Malaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Simulation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Interactions]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Dynamic]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Incidence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Malaria]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><body><![CDATA[  ]]></body><back>
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