<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-0739</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Colombia Forestal]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Colomb. for.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-0739</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Proyecto Curricular de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-07392020000100051</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14483/2256201x.14866</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelamiento de nichos ecológicos de flora amenazada para escenarios de cambio climático en el departamento de Tacna - Perú]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling ecological niches of threatened flora for climate change scenarios in Tacna department - Peru]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Navarro Guzmán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marco Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jove Chipana]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cesar Augusto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ignacio Apaza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier Máximo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Latinoamericana CIMA de Tacna Facultad de Ingeniería Ambiental ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Tacna ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann de Tacna  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Tacna ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann de Tacna  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Tacna ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>51</fpage>
<lpage>67</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-07392020000100051&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-07392020000100051&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-07392020000100051&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen A pesar de la numerosa información científica sobre cambio climático mundial, no existen estudios que demuestren los efectos sobre la biodiversidad a menor escala. Por ello, utilizando 19 variables bioclimáticas, cinco de radiación solar, altitud, software especializado (MaxEnt) y coordenadas geográficas de presencia de cinco especies de flora categorizada verificadas en campo se modelaron sus nichos ecológicos actuales y proyectados a los cuatro escenarios futuros de emisiones (2050 y 2070). Se demostró que el de Buddleja coriacea disminuirá en más del 80 % por las variaciones futuras de precipitación y temperatura consecuencia del cambio climático, mientras que Carica candicans, Haplorhus peruviana, Kageneckia lanceolata y Weberbauerella brongniartioides se mantendrán e incrementarán, deduciéndose que sus categorías de amenaza derivan principalmente por actividad antropogénica. Estos modelos mejoran significativamente la comprensión del funcionamiento ecosistémico, otorgando información útil para diseñar políticas y acciones de conservación que orienten la gestión territorial hacia la estrategia de adaptación basada en ecosistemas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Despite the numerous scientific information on global climate change, there are no studies that show effects on biodiversity on a smaller scale. Therefore, using 19 bioclimatic variables, five solar radiation, altitude, specialized software (MaxEnt) and geographical coordinates of the presence of five species of categorized flora verified in the field, their current ecological niches were modeled and projected to the four future emission scenarios (2050 and 2070) showing that Buddleja coriacea will decrease by more than 80 % due to future variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change, while Carica candicans, Haplorhus peruviana, Kageneckia lanceolata and Weberbauerella brongniartioides will remain and increase, deducing that Its threat categories derive mainly from anthropogenic activity. These models significantly improve the understanding of ecosystem functioning, providing useful information to design conservation policies and actions that guide territorial management towards the Ecosystem-based Adaptation strategy.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[GEI]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Peligro Crítico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[RCP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tacna]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Worldclim.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GEI]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Critically Endangered]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[RCP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Tacna]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Worldclim]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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