<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-1751</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Colombiana de Estadística]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev.Colomb.Estad.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-1751</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Departamento de Estadística - Universidad Nacional de Colombia.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-17512010000100001</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A Probability Model for the Child Mortality in a Family]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Un modelo probabilístico para la mortalidad en la infancia en una familia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[PANDEY]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[HIMANSHU]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A01"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[KISHUN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JAI]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A02"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,Gorakhpur University  Department of Mathematics and Statistics]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Gorakhpur ]]></addr-line>
<country>India</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A02">
<institution><![CDATA[,Gorakhpur University  Department of Mathematics and Statistics]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Gorakhpur ]]></addr-line>
<country>India</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>15</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>11</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-17512010000100001&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-17512010000100001&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-17512010000100001&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[This paper proposed, under assumptions of inflated type fixed displaced geometric model, the distribution pattern of families according to number of child deaths within the first five years of life. The proposed model involves several parameters related to child mortality in a family, which is estimated with Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation techniques. The proposed models fitted the observed data showing a better approximation at the survey area and draw some vital conclusions.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Este documento presenta, bajo el supuesto de un modelo geométrico de desplazamiento fijo, patrones de distribución de las familias, de acuerdo con el número de defunciones de sus hijos menores de cinco años. El modelo emplea diferentes parámetros relacionados con la mortalidad en la infancia en una familia, estimada con el método de momentos y de máxima verosimilitud. Los modelos propuestos ajustan los datos observados, mostrando mejor aproximación a la encuesta de área y describe algunas conclusiones vitales.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[F distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G-estimation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[M-estimation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[t-distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Death]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Contraception]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Probability model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución F]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estimación G]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estimación M]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Distribución t]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[anticoncepción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de probabilidad]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><body><![CDATA[  <font size="2" face="verdana">      <p> <b> <font size="4">     <center> A Probability Model for the Child Mortality in a Family </center> </font> </b> </p>      <p> <b> <font size="3">     <center> Un modelo probabil&iacute;stico para la mortalidad en la infancia en una familia </center> </font> </b> </p>      <p>     <center> HIMANSHU PANDEY<sup>1</sup>,  JAI KISHUN<sup>2</sup> </center> </p>      <p> <sup>1</sup>Gorakhpur University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Gorakhpur, India. Professor. Email: <a href="mailto:himanshupandey@is.iiita.ac.in">himanshupandey@is.iiita.ac.in</a>     <br>  <sup>2</sup>Gorakhpur University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Gorakhpur, India. Professor email Email: <a href="mailto:jaikishan.stat@gmail.com">jaikishan.stat@gmail.com</a>     <br> </p>  <hr size="1">      ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p> <b>     <center> Abstract </center> </b> </p>      <p> This paper proposed, under assumptions of inflated type fixed displaced geometric model, the distribution pattern of families according to number of child deaths within the first five years of life. The proposed model involves several parameters related to child mortality in a family, which is estimated with Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation techniques. The proposed models fitted the observed data showing a better approximation at the survey area and draw some vital conclusions. </p>      <p> <b> Key words: </b> F distribution, G-estimation, M-estimation, t-distribution, Mortality, Death, Contraception, Probability model. </p>  <hr size="1">      <p> <b>     <center> Resumen </center> </b> </p>      <p> Este documento presenta, bajo el supuesto de un modelo geom&eacute;trico de desplazamiento fijo, patrones de distribuci&oacute;n de las familias, de acuerdo con el n&uacute;mero de defunciones de sus hijos menores de cinco a&ntilde;os. El modelo emplea diferentes par&aacute;metros relacionados con la mortalidad en la infancia en una familia, estimada con el m&eacute;todo de momentos y de m&aacute;xima verosimilitud. Los modelos propuestos ajustan los datos observados, mostrando mejor aproximaci&oacute;n a la encuesta de &aacute;rea y describe algunas conclusiones vitales. </p>      <p> <b> Palabras clave: </b> distribuci&oacute;n F, estimaci&oacute;n G, estimaci&oacute;n M, Distribuci&oacute;n t, mortalidad, anticoncepci&oacute;n, modelos de probabilidad. </p>  <hr size="1">      <p> Texto completo disponible en <a href="pdf/rce/v33n1/v33n1a01.pdf">PDF</a> </p>  <hr size="1">      <p> <b> <font size="3"> References </font> </b> </p>       ]]></body>
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(1977), 'Fine-Tuning Brass Type Mortality Estimates with Data on Ages of Surviving Children', <i>Population Bulletin of the United Nations</i>(10). &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000035&pid=S0120-1751201000010000100013&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><!-- ref --><p> 14. Ronald, D. L. &amp; Lawrence, R. C. (1992), 'Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality', <i>Journal of American Statistical Associations</i>(87), 659-675. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000036&pid=S0120-1751201000010000100014&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><!-- ref --><p> 15. Sastry, N. (1997), 'A Nested Frailty Model for Survival Data, with an Application to the Study of Child Survival in North East Brazil', <i>Journal of the American Statistical Association</i> <b>92</b>. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000037&pid=S0120-1751201000010000100015&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><!-- ref --><p> 16. Srivastava, S. (2001), Some Mathematical Models in Demography and Their Application, Doctoral Thesis, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000038&pid=S0120-1751201000010000100016&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><!-- ref --><p> 17. Thiele, P. N. (1972), 'On Mathematical Formula to Express the Rate of Mortality Throughout the Whole of Life', <i>Journal of Institute of Actuaries</i>(16), 313. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000039&pid=S0120-1751201000010000100017&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><center> <b>&#91;Recibido en julio de 2009. Aceptado en diciembre de 2009&#93;</b> </center> <hr size="1">      <p> Este art&iacute;culo se puede citar en <i>LaTeX</i> utilizando la siguiente referencia bibliogr&aacute;fica de <i>BibTeX</i>: </p> <code><font size="2">@ARTICLE{RCEv33n1a01,    <br>  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; AUTHOR &nbsp;= {Pandey, Himanshu and Kishun, Jai},    ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<br>  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; TITLE &nbsp; = {{A Probability Model for the Child Mortality in a Family}},    <br>  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; JOURNAL = {Revista Colombiana de Estad&iacute;stica},    <br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; YEAR &nbsp;&nbsp; = {2010},    <br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; volume &nbsp;= {33},    <br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; number &nbsp;= {1},    <br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; pages &nbsp; = {1-11}    <br> }</font></code>  <hr size="1"> </font>      ]]></body><back>
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