<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-2596</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Lecturas de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Lect. Econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-2596</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Antioquia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-25962019000200011</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17533/udea.le.n91a01</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Diversificación productiva y cambio estructural en economías cerradas y abiertas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The fiscal expenditure of the war against possessors of illicit drugs: an approximation for Colombia Diversification]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Les dépenses fiscales de la guerre contre les détenteurs de drogues illicites : un rapprochement pour la Colombie]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Humberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diana Marcela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jaramillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María Liliam]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Departamento de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Departamento de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>91</numero>
<fpage>11</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-25962019000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-25962019000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-25962019000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La diversificación productiva ha sido el principal determinante del cambio estructural de las economías. Esta hipótesis se analiza para nueve países bajo un régimen comercial relativamente cerrado, y para nueve países latinoamericanos bajo un régimen comercial relativamente abierto frente a Estados Unidos. Se contrastan las ecuaciones del cambio estructural que se deducen de un modelo multisectorial y dinámico de equilibrio económico general. Para las economías cerradas no se rechaza la hipótesis de que la diversificación productiva se relaciona negativamente con la contribución del sector primario al producto: la mayor diversificación aumenta la productividad relativa de las actividades manufactureras. Para las economías abiertas no se rechaza la hipótesis de que las ventajas comparativas del país inciden en la asignación relativa de recursos para el sector agrícola: la productividad agrícola relativa incide positivamente, la dotación relativa del capital fijo incide negativamente y la tasa de cambio real incide positivamente. En este último caso, se postula que una baja diversificación productiva induce el deterioro de los términos de intercambio, lo que favorece la especialización en actividades primarias. Clasificación JEL: F41, F63, 011, 030, 040, 054.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Productive diversification has been the main determinant of structural change of the economies. This hypothesis is analysed for nine countries under a relatively closed trade regime, and for nine Latin American countries under a relatively open trade regime with the United States. The equations of structural change that are tested are derived from a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model. The negative impact of productive diversification on the relative allocation of resources to the primary sector cannot be rejected for closed economies: greater diversification increases the relative productivity of manufacturing activities. The impact of a country&#8217;s comparative advantages on the allocation of resources to agriculture cannot be rejected: the relative agricultural productivity has a positive impact; the relative capital endowment has a negative impact; and the real exchange rate has a positive impact. In the last case, it is argued that low diversification induces a deterioration in the terms of trade, which favours specialization in primary activities. Clasificación JEL: F41, F63, 011, 030, 040, 054.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[Résumé: La diversification de la production a été le principal déterminant du changement structurel des économies. Cette hypothèse est analysée pour neuf pays soumis à un régime commercial relativement fermé et pour neuf pays d&#8217;Amérique latine sous un régime comercial relativement ouvert vis-à-vis des États-Unis. Les équations de changement structurel déduites d&#8217;un modèle multisectoriel et dynamique d&#8217;équilibre économique général sont contrastées. Pour les économies fermées, l&#8217;hypothèse selon laquelle la diversification de la production est négativement liée à la contribution du secteur primaire au produit n&#8217;est pas rejetée: une diversification accrue augmente la productivité relative des activités manufacturières. Pour les économies ouvertes, l&#8217;hypothèse selon laquelle les avantages comparatifs du pays affectent l&#8217;allocation relative des ressources pour le secteur agricole n&#8217;est pas rejetée: la productivité agricole relative a un impact positif, la dotation relative en capital fixe a un impact négatif et le taux de change réel a un impact positif. Dans ce dernier cas, il est postulé qu&#8217;une faible diversification de la production entraîne une détérioration des termes de l&#8217;échange, ce qui favorise la spécialisation dans les activités primaires. Clasificación JEL: F41, F63, 011, 030, 040, 054.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[diversificación productiva]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio estructural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[desarrollo económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[régimen comercial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[productive diversification]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[structural change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic development]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[trade regime]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[diversification de la production]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[changement structurel]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[développement économique]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[croissance économique]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[régime commercial]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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