<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-3053</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Apuntes del Cenes]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Apuntes del Cenes]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-3053</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia (UPTC)]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-30532025000100097</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.19053/uptc.01203053.v44.n79.2025.17833</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Gold or Silver: An Alternative to Investing]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Oro o plata: una alternativa de inversión]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vacio-Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Iván Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Tecnologica de Hermosillo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Sonora ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>44</volume>
<numero>79</numero>
<fpage>97</fpage>
<lpage>135</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-30532025000100097&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-30532025000100097&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-30532025000100097&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Throughout history, gold has been a highly valued investment, especially in times of crisis. In recent years, however, silver has attracted the attention of investors for its performance in terms of returns and price. Therefore, the objective of this research was to determine which of the two metals is the best to invest in. In this sense, an empirical method was developed based on the most common tests found in the literature, which included a financial integration with macroeconomic variables of the United States; predictability and trend analysis; return loss rate; volatility analysis; and annual returns. A quantitative research approach limited to the United States of America was established. The variables mainly used were the prices of gold and silver and their returns between 1990 and 2024. The statistical methods used in these tests were: Multiple Linear Correlation; Cubic ARIMA, GARCH and Polynomial Regression; Defects per Million Opportunities (DPMO); Bonett test for Difference of Variances; and Short, Medium and Long Term Returns Analysis. In order to synthesize and compare the results of the tests, an evaluation method based on the Pugh Matrix was used. As a result, gold received a score of +1, while silver got a value of -1, reaching the conclusion that of the two metals, gold is the best to invest in. Some findings and considerations are mentioned at the end.  JEL Classification:  C13; C53; E62; F21; G15.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El oro ha sido considerado un commodity de inversión muy valorado a lo largo de la historia, particularmente en momentos de crisis. Sin embargo, en los últimos años la plata ha llamado la atención de inversores por su desempeño en términos de rendimiento y precio, por lo que el objetivo de la presente investigación fue el de determinar en cuál de los dos metales conviene más invertir. En ese sentido, se desarrolló un método empírico, basado en las pruebas más comunes encontradas en la literatura, el cual incluyó un análisis de integración financiera con variables macroeconómicas de Estados Unidos, análisis de predictibilidad y tendencia, tasa de minusvalías, análisis de volatilidad, y análisis de rendimientos. Se estableció un enfoque de investigación del tipo cuantitativo, limitado a los Estados Unidos de América. Las variables utilizadas principalmente fueron los precios del oro y la plata, y sus rendimientos entre 1990 y 2024. Los métodos estadísticos empleados en dichas pruebas fueron: correlación lineal múltiple; ARIMA, GARCH y regresión polinomial; defectos por millón de oportunidades (DPMO); prueba de Bonett para la diferencia de varianzas; y análisis de rentabilidad a corto, mediano y largo plazo. Con el propósito de sintetizar y comparar los resultados de las pruebas se utilizó una evaluación basada en la matriz de Pugh. Como resultado, el oro obtuvo un puntaje de +1, en tanto que la plata alcanzó un valor de -1, llegando a la conclusión de que, de ambos commodities, el oro es el metal en el que más conviene invertir. Al final se mencionan algunos hallazgos y consideraciones.  Clasificación JEL: C13, C53, E62, F21, G15.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Gold prediction]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[gold returns]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[silver volatility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[metal investments]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[safe haven]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción del oro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[rendimientos del oro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[volatilidad del oro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inversión en metales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fondo de refugio]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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