<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-3584</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Desarrollo y Sociedad]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Desarro. soc.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-3584</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de los Andes]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-35842022000300009</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.13043/dys.92.8</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el periodo 2005-2019]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Effects of fiscal credibility on investment expectations in Colombia: Empirical evidence for the 2005-2019 period]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos Barroso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cristina Isabel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galvis Ciro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Camilo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>92</numero>
<fpage>273</fpage>
<lpage>315</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-35842022000300009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-35842022000300009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-35842022000300009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La credibilidad fiscal constituye un elemento importante en la generación de escenarios propicios para la inversión y el crecimiento económico. La adecuada gestión de las finanzas públicas puede ser determinante en la percepción de riesgo país y la atracción de capital extranjero. El propósito de este trabajo es construir un índice de credibilidad fiscal y evaluar su impacto sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia para el periodo 2005-2019. Con datos mensuales de la credibilidad fiscal, las expectativas de inversión y un grupo de variables control, se realizaron estimaciones mediante los métodos OLS y GMM. Además, se hicieron pruebas de robustez, mediante funciones impulso-respuesta. Los hallazgos revelan que, en efecto, la credibilidad fiscal influye de forma directa en las decisiones de inversión de los agentes privados en Colombia. También se encuentra que la tasa de interés local y la volatilidad internacional afectan negativamente las expectativas de los inversionistas. Clasificación JEL: E62, H60, H68.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Fiscal credibility plays an important role in creating favorable scenarios for investment and economic growth. Adequate management of public finances can be decisive in the perception of country risk and the attraction of foreign capital. The aim of this paper is to build a fiscal credibility index and evaluate its impact on investment expectations in Colombia for the 2005-2019 period. Using monthly data on fiscal credibility, investment expectations, and a set of control variables, estimates were made using OLS and GMM methods. Robustness tests were performed using impulse-response functions. The findings reveal that fiscal credibility directly influences the investment decisions of private agents, and that local interest rates and international volatility negatively affect investors&#8217; expectations. JEL Classification: E62, H60, H68.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[credibilidad fiscal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inversión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[finanzas públicas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Fiscal credibility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Investment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Public finances]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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