<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-386X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Facultad Nacional de Salud Pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Fac. Nac. Salud Pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-386X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Antioquia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-386X2018000100027</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17533/udea.rfnsp.v36n1a04</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis probabilista con caminata al azar del número de personas viviendo con VIH mundialmente]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A Probabilistic analysis with random walks of the number of people living with HIV worldwide]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Análise probabilística com caminhada aleatória do número de pessoas vivendo com HIV mundialmente]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Velásquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier Oswaldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oliveros-Acosta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diego Iván]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soracipa-Muñoz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Maria Yolanda]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bernal-Parra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luz Mery]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Correa-Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sandra Catalina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Abrahem-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Laura Ibeth]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Flórez-Preciado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luz Azucena]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Correa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Dharma]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bahamon-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yoshua]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valero-Alvarado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oscar Mauricio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigaciones de la Clínica del Country  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Institución Universitaria Politécnico Grancolombiano  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigaciones de la Clínica del Country  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigaciones de la Clínica del Country  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigaciones de la Clínica del Country  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>27</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-386X2018000100027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-386X2018000100027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-386X2018000100027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El estudio de la dinámica anual de la epidemia de VIH a partir de la caminata al azar ha mostrado ser de utilidad para llevar este fenómeno altamente variable a un comportamiento predecible, desde una mirada acausal.  Objetivo:  predecir el comportamiento de la dinámica del número de personas viviendo con VIH mediante la caminata al azar probabilista.  Metodología:  Se analizaron los valores anuales de personas que a nivel global viven con VIH desde el año 1990 hasta el 2009, a partir de los espacios de probabilidad generados del estudio de esta dinámica con la caminata al azar probabilista, para posteriormente desarrollar la predicción del valor anual de personas viviendo con VIH para los años 2010, 2011 y 2012.  Resultados:  Basados en el comportamiento de caminata al azar probabilista que exhibió el fenómeno, se predijeron los valores anuales de personas viviendo con VIH con un porcentaje de acierto de 98,95% para el año 2010, de 98,82% para el año 2011 y de 98,99% para la predicción realizada para el año 2012.  Conclusiones:  Se establecieron órdenes matemáticos a partir de la caminata al azar probabilista, estableciendo predicciones prácticamente deterministas en un contexto acausal del número de personas viviendo con VIH, logrando lo que podría ser de aplicación a las decisiones de salud pública, como método de evaluación de intervenciones.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction:  This is a study of the yearly dynamic of the HIV epidemic based on random walks has proven to be useful to take this highly variable phenomenon to a predictable behavior. Objective: Predict the behavior of the dynamic of the number of people living with HIV via a probabilistic random walk.  Methodology:  The yearly value of people living with HIV worldwide was analyzed from 1990 to 2009, based on probability spaces produced with a probabilistic random walk, and then, developed the prediction of the yearly value of people living with HIV for 2010, 2011 and 2012.  Results:  The yearly volume of people living with HIV was predicted with a 98.95% success rate in 2010, 98.82% in 2011 and 98.99% for the 2012 prediction.  Conclusions:  Mathematical orders were established based on the probabilistic random walk, establishing practically deterministic predictions of the number of people living with HIV which could be useful for public health decisions and to evaluate interventions.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo  Introdução: O estudo da dinâmica anual da epidemia do HIV a partir do passeio aleatório tem se mostrado útil para trazer este fenômeno altamente variável a um comportamento previsível. Objetivo: Predizer o comportamento da dinâmica do número de pessoas vivendo com HIV. através da caminhada aleatória probabilística.  Metodologia: Analisaram-se os valores anuais das pessoas vivendo globalmente com HIV de 1990 a 2009, a partir dos espaços de probabilidade gerados com o passeio aleatório probabilístico, para posteriormente desenvolver a predição do valor anual das pessoas que vivem com o HIV pelos anos 2010, 2011 y 2012.  Resultados:  Os valores anuais das pessoas vivendo com HIV foram previstos com uma taxa de sucesso de 98,95% para o ano de 2010, de 98,82% para o ano de 2011 e de 98,99% para a previsão feita para o ano de 2012.  Conclusões:  Ordens matemáticas foram estabelecidas a partir do passeio probabilístico aleatório, estabelecendo predições praticamente determinísticas do número de pessoas vivendo com HIV, o que poderia ser útil para decisões em Saúde Pública e para a avaliação de intervenções.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[VIH]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Probabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Epidemias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sobrevivientes de VIH a Largo Plazo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[HIV]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[epidemics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[long-term HIV survivors]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[HIV]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Probabilidade]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Epidemias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Sobreviventes de Longo Prazo com HIV]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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