<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-4483</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ensayos sobre POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ens. polit. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-4483</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de la República]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-44832017000300245</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.002</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Determinantes macro y microeconómicos para pruebas de tensión de riesgo de crédito: un estudio comparativo entre Ecuador y Colombia basado en la tasa de morosidad]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Macro and microeconomic determinants of credit risk stress testing: Comparative case based on nonperforming loans between Ecuador and Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Uquillas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adriana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Politécnica Nacional Facultad de Ciencias Departamento de Matemáticas]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Quito ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>84</numero>
<fpage>245</fpage>
<lpage>259</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-44832017000300245&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-44832017000300245&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-44832017000300245&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Se obtiene el impacto de los determinantes de la tasa de morosidad de Ecuador y Colombia, para aplicarlos a pruebas de tensión. Los modelos estimados ARIMAX sugieren que en Ecuador los shocks se transmiten con rapidez. La morosidad de ambos países es sensible negativamente a la liquidez (factor más importante) y a la tasa de intermediación, pero sus impactos y la rapidez de transmisión son diferentes. El precio del petróleo, volumen de crédito y actividad económica son determinantes relevantes para Ecuador. En Colombia, el shock bursátil es negativo e inmediato, los shocks de importaciones se transmiten a corto y mediano plazo. Los impactos de la producción manufacturera son más tardíos. Esta es la primera investigación empírica que compara, entre ambos países, el impacto de cada factor en la morosidad. Los modelos contribuyen para plantear políticas económicas y de gestión que produzcan impactos en el desempeño de la morosidad. Códigos JEL: G28, G21,C50, C22, E37.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The impact of nonperforming loans determinants of Ecuador and Colombia is obtained in order to apply them to stress tests. Estimated ARIMAX models suggest that in Ecuador shocks are rapidly transmitted. The delinquency of both countries is negatively sensitive to liquidity (the most important factor) and the intermediation rate, but their impacts and the speed of transmission are different. In Ecuador, the price of oil, volume of credit and economic activity are important determinants. In Colombia, the stock market shock is negative and immediate; import shocks are the most important and it are transmitted in the short and medium term. The impacts of manufacturing production occur later. This is the first empirical research that compares, between both countries, the impact of each factor on nonperforming loans. The models contribute to propose economic and management policies that produce impacts on the performance of nonperforming loans. JEL classification: G28, G21, C50, C22, E37.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pruebas de tensión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Crisis financiera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Series temporales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Función de transferencia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Riesgo crediticio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Control de riesgo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Stress testing]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Financial crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Time-series]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Transfer function]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Credit risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Risk control]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
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