<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-4483</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ensayos sobre POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ens. polit. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-4483</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de la República]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-44832017000300260</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.003</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Study on spillover effect between international soybean market and China's domestic soybean market]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estudio sobre el efecto derrame entre el mercado internacional de soja y el mercado nacional de soja de China]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Kun]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Diao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gang]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hebei Agricultural University  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>China</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hebei University of Science and Technology  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>China</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>84</numero>
<fpage>260</fpage>
<lpage>266</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-44832017000300260&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-44832017000300260&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-44832017000300260&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Due to high import dependency, China's domestic soybean market became unstable and soybean production was lingering and declining. It would be better to know the correlation between international and China's domestic soybean market for policy-making and production decision. This study used data of CBOT soybean futures price, imported soybean distribution price at Qingdao port and soybean spot price in China from September 10, 2011 to November 19, 2016 and chose multivariate GARCH model to check the spillover effect and correlation between them. The results showed that price volatilities of three markets had significant clustering effect while GARCH effect was stronger than ARCH effect. The spillover effect and correlations between markets were remarkable. It demonstrated the imported soybean market was significantly affected by the international soybean future market volatility, and such instability then resulted in violent fluctuations of China's domestic soybean spot market. Policies should be made to keep China's soybean industry safe and developed. JEL classification: C32 Multivariable Time-Series Models, F16 Trade and Labor Market Interactions, Q13 Agricultural Markets.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Como consecuencia de la gran dependencia de las importaciones, el mercado nacional de soja de China se ha vuelto inestable y la producción de soja se ha mantenido constante para después disminuir. Sería mejor conocer la correlación entre el mercado internacional de soja y el mercado nacional de soja de China para la adopción de decisiones de política y de producción. Este estudio ha utilizado datos del precio de los futuros de soja CBOT, el precio de distribución de la soja importada en el puerto de Qingdao y el precio al contado de la soja en China entre el 10 de septiembre de 2011 y el 19 de noviembre de 2016, y eligió el modelo GARCH multivariado para comprobar el efecto derrame y la correlación entre ellos. Los resultados mostraron que la volatilidad de los precios de los 3 mercados tenía un efecto de agrupamiento importante, mientras que el efecto GARCH era más fuerte que el efecto ARCH. El efecto derrame y las correlaciones entre los mercados fueron notables. Se demostró que el mercado de importación de soja tuvo grandes repercusiones por la volatilidad del mercado internacional de futuros de la soja y que dicha inestabilidad provocó bruscas fluctuaciones del mercado nacional de soja de China. Deben establecerse políticas para que la industria de la soja de China se mantenga segura y desarrollada. Códigos JEL: C32 Modelos de series temporales, F16 Interacciones entre el comercio y el mercado laboral, Q13 Mercados agrarios y marketing Cooperativas Industria agraria.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Soybean price volatility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Multivariate GARCH model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Clustering effect]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Spillover effect]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Volatilidad del precio de la soja]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo GARCH multivariado]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Efecto de agolpamiento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Efecto derrame]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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