<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-6230</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev.fac.ing.univ. Antioquia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-6230</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-62302022000200009</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17533/udea.redin.20201008</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Water supply failure probability under influence of climate change - Balsillas river basin case study]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Probabilidad de fallo en el suministro de agua bajo influencia del cambio climático - Estudio de caso cuenca río Balsillas]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mena Rentería]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Darwin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Espinosa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eydy Michell]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paula Carolina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cañón Ramos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Duarte]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Freddy Santiago]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palacios Gonzalez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jordi Rafael]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Santo Tomás Programa de Ingeniería Ambiental ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito Centro de Estudios Hidráulicos ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Sergio Arboleda Escuela de Ciencias Exactas e Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>103</numero>
<fpage>9</fpage>
<lpage>19</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-62302022000200009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-62302022000200009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-62302022000200009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This project assesses the risk of water supply failure for the agricultural sector under climate change conditions by implementing hydrological models that support decision-making for satisfying consumptive demands in times of scarcity. This project was developed using hydrological modeling tools such as the HydroBID software and the SIMGES and SIMRISK water resource management models of AQUATOOL DSS. The flow series for a future scenario were obtained for different climate change scenarios from a Global Climate Model (GCM) and the Coordinated Regional Experiment on Climate Reduction (CORDEX) by downscaling the results from the global scale to basin-scale using a statistical method based on chaos theory. These projections show that under conditions of climate change, the agricultural sector of the Balsillas basin will not suffer significant impacts since they will be able to satisfy most demand points.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Este proyecto evalúa el riesgo de falla del suministro de agua para el sector agrícola en condiciones de cambio climático mediante la implementación de modelos hidrológicos que apoyan la toma de decisiones para satisfacer las demandas de consumo en tiempos de escasez. Este proyecto se desarrolló a través de una metodología que utiliza herramientas de modelado hidrológico como el software HydroBID y los modelos de gestión de recursos hídricos SIMGES y SIMRISK de AQUATOOL DSS. Las series de caudales para un escenario futuro se obtuvieron para diferentes escenarios de cambio climático a partir de un Modelo Climático Global (GCM) y el Experimento Regional Coordinado de Reducción del Clima (CORDEX) reduciendo la escala de los resultados de la escala global a la escala de cuenca utilizando un método estadístico basado en la teoría del caos. Estas proyecciones muestran que, en condiciones de cambio climático, el sector agrícola de la cuenca del Balsillas no sufrirá impactos significativos ya que podrá satisfacer la mayoría de los puntos de demanda.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Agroclimatology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[agriculture]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change adaptation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[hydrology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water consumption]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Agroclimatología]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[agricultura]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[adaptación al cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[hidrología]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[consumo de agua]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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