<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-6346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Semestre Económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Semest. Econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-6346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Medellín]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-63462018000400057</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22395/seec.v21n49a3</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[DINÁMICA DE SISTEMAS Y LA CURVA MEDIO AMBIENTAL DE KUZNETS EN PERÚ (1990-2015)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE IN PERU (1990-2015)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[DINÂMICA DE SISTEMAS E A CURVA AMBIENTAL DE KUZNETS NO PERU (1990-2015)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moreno Moreno**]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nora Isabel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Lima Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas y Económicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Lima ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>21</volume>
<numero>49</numero>
<fpage>57</fpage>
<lpage>88</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-63462018000400057&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-63462018000400057&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-63462018000400057&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Este artículo muestra la importancia de la dinámica de sistemas como complemento de la econometría y su uso en la formulación de políticas económicas a través de cuadros dinámicos de mando. Explora la validez de la hipótesis de la Curva medio ambiental de Kuznets en Perú. Posteriormente modela un diagrama de influencias para describir las complejas relaciones entre la economía y el medio ambiente. Finalmente, se muestra una simulación dinámica según Forrester para el dióxido de carbono (CO2) que combina la identidad de Kaya con el proceso de formación del PIB de Perú, incluyendo la energía renovable. Este modelo de simulación corrobora los resultados de Kuznets para el CO2 y permite diseñar políticas para las variables generadoras del modelo. CLASIFICACIÓN JEL: Q20, Q30, Q56 CONTENIDO: Introducción; 1. Revisión de la literatura; 2. Abordaje econométrico de la curva medio ambiental de Kuznets; 3. Análisis sistémico de la curva medio ambiental de Kuznets; 4. Conclusiones; Bibliografía.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This paper shows the importance of system dynamics as a complement for econometrics and its use for formulating economic policies through dynamic command tables. It explores the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis validity in Peru. Afterwards, the research models an influences diagram to describe the complex relationships between economy and environment. Finally, it offers a Forrester dynamic simulation for carbon dioxide (CO2), which combines Kaya&#8217;s identity with the process of Peru&#8217;s GDP formation, including renewable energy. This simulation model corroborates Kuznets&#8217; results for CO2 and allows to design policies for the model&#8217;s generating variables. JEL CLASSIFICATION: Q20, Q30, Q56 CONTENTS: Introduction; 1. Literature review; 2. Econometric approach to the environmental Kuznets curve; 3. Systemic analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve; 4. Conclusions; Bibliography.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[RESUMO Este artigo mostra a importância da dinâmica de sistemas como complemento da econometria e seu uso na formulação de políticas econômicas por meio de quadros dinâmicos de comando. Explora a validade da hipótese da Curva Ambiental de Kuznets no Peru. Posteriormente, modela um diagrama de influências para descrever as complexas relações entre a economia e o meio ambiente. Finalmente, mostra-se uma simulação dinâmica segundo Forrester para o dióxido de carbono (CO2) que combina a identidade de Kaya com o processo de formação do PIB do Peru, incluindo a energia renovável. Esse modelo de simulação corrobora os resultados de Kuznets para o CO2 e permite criar políticas para as variáveis geradoras do modelo. CLASSIFICAÇÃO JEL: Q20, Q30, Q56 CONTEÚDO: Introdução; 1. Revisão da literatura; 2. Abordagem econométrica da Curva Ambiental de Kuznets; 3. Análise sistêmica da Curva Ambiental de Kuznets; 4. Conclusões; Bibliografia.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Curva medio ambiental de Kuznets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía de medio ambiente]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dinámica de sistemas.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Environmental Kuznets curve]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[environmental economy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[system dynamics.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Curva Ambiental de Kuznets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[economia de meio ambiente]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[dinâmica de sistemas.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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