<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-6346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Semestre Económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Semest. Econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-6346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Medellín]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-63462019000300161</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22395/seec.v22n52a7</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[PRONÓSTICO DE VENTAS DE LAS EMPRESAS DEL SECTOR ALIMENTOS: UNA APLICACIÓN DE REDES NEURONALES]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[SALES FORECAST OF COMPANIES IN THE FOOD SECTOR: A NEURAL NETWORKS APPLIANCE]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[PREVISÃO DE VENDAS DAS EMPRESAS DO SETOR ALIMENTOS: UMA APLICAÇÃO DE REDES NEURAIS]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales Castro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eliseo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Albor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Contaduría y Administración ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Caribe Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas, Económicas y Contables ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Barranquilla ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>52</numero>
<fpage>161</fpage>
<lpage>177</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-63462019000300161&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-63462019000300161&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-63462019000300161&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El objetivo de esta investigación es pronosticar las ventas de las siguientes empresas: Industrias Bachoco, Grupo Bafar, Grupo Bimbo, Gruma, Grupo Herdez, Grupo Lala y Grupo Industrial Maseca del periodo 2006 al 2015, a través de modelos lineales (regresión lineal) y no lineales (redes neuronales artificiales, tablas de decisión, árbol de decisión y procesos gaussianos) para medir el desempeño de cada uno de estos modelos y seleccionar para cada empresa aquel modelo que presente un mayor ajuste a los datos históricos. Como resultado, en el periodo de 2006-2015 los modelos de regresión lineal múltiple presentaron un mejor desempeño en determinar las ventas de Bachoco, Bafar, Herdez, Lala y Maseca con más de 90 % de recuperación de los datos dentro de este periodo. CLASIFICACIÓN JEL: E31, C45, C55. CONTENIDO: Introducción; 1. Integración del pronóstico dentro de las actividades administrativas; 2. Pronósticos con redes neuronales artificiales; 3. Metodología; 4. Resultados; 5. Conclusiones; Bibliografía.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The goal of this research is to forecast the sales of the following companies: Industrias Bachoco, Grupo Bafar, Grupo Bimbo, Gruma, Grupo Herdez, Grupo Lala y Grupo Industrial Maseca in the period 2006-2015 through a linear model (linear regression) and a non-linear model (artificial neural networks, decision tables, decision tress and gaussian process) for measuring the performance of each of these models and selecting for each company the model which adjusts more precisely to the historical data. As a result, in the 2006-2015 period the multiple linear regression models show a better performance in determining the sales of Bachoco, Bafar, Herdez, Lala and Maseca with more than 90% of the data recovered within this period. JEL CODE: E31, C45, C55. CONTENTS: Introduction; 1. Integration of the forecast within the management activities; 2. Forecasts with artificial neural networks; 3. Methodology; 4. Results; 5. Conclusions; Bibliography.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[RESUMO O objetivo desta pesquisa é predizer as vendas das seguintes empresas: Industrias Bachoco, Grupo Bafar, Grupo Bimbo, Gruma, Grupo Herdez, Grupo Lala e Grupo Industrial Maseca de 2006 a 2015, por meio de modelos lineares (regressão linear) e não lineares (redes neurais artificiais, tabelas de decisão, árvore de decisão e processos gaussianos) para medir o desempenho de cada um desses modelos e escolher, para cada empresa, o modelo que apresentar um maior ajuste aos dados históricos. Como resultado, no período 2006-2015, os modelos de regressão linear múltipla apresentam um melhor desempenho em determinar as vendas de Bachoco, Bafar, Herdez, Lala e Maseca com mais de 90 % de recuperação dos dados dentro desse período. CLASSIFICAÇÃO JEL: E31, C45, C55. CONTEÚDO: Introdução; 1. Integração da previsão dentro das atividades administrativas; 2. Prognósticos com redes neurais artificiais; 3. Metodologia; 4. Resultados; 5. Conclusões; Bibliografia.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico de ventas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[variables económico-financieras]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[minería de datos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[regresión lineal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[empresas de alimentos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Sales forecast]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic-financial variables]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[data mining]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[linear regression]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[food companies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Previsão de vendas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[variáveis econômico-financeiras]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[mineração de dados]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[regressão linear]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[empresas de alimentos]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chase]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Charles]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Selecting the Appropriate Forecasting Method]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Journal of Business Forecasting and Systems]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>23-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chávez Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Omar]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Modelo de predicción de la tendencia del tipo de cambio peso-dólar mediante triangulación de arbitraje]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<page-range>1-49</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Economática</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Plataforma]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Alicorp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vázquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Heriberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sáenz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Limón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Investigación en el ámbito empresarial: pronósticos, supervisión e indicadores financieros (estudio de casos)]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<page-range>202</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Veracruz ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Cristóbal Colón]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gupta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Saurabh]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kumar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nishant]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A study of advancement in sales forecasting models]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Pranjana]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-10</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huerta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rogelio]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Monopolio, precio de la tortilla y estancamiento de la economía mexicana]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economía Informal]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>351</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>67-84</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Inegi -Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Indicadores de población]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jain]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Chaman]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Benchmarking the management support for a forecasting function]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods and Systems]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>21</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>8-10</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Juárez Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Viridiana]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Análisis del efecto del tipo de cambio en la estructura financiera de las empresas que cotizan en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores: sector alimentos, bebidas y tabaco]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<page-range>1-158</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lundberg]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Johan]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lundberg]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sofia]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Distributional Effects of Lower Food Prices in a Rich Country]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Consumer Policy]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>373-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Makridakis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Spyros]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wheelwright]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Steven]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Forecasting: Issues and Challenges for Marketing Management. A framework from relating the available techniques to specific situations]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Marketing]]></source>
<year>1977</year>
<volume>41</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>24-38</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Melchor Quinto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Argelia]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Uso de redes neuronales artificiales para el pronóstico de la inflación]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<page-range>1-92</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oswaldo]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Clasificación y predicción de las empresas exitosas y no exitosas del sector comercial de la BMV mediante el uso de redes neuronales óptimas]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Administración de Riesgos]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>6</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>51-94</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morel Salas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Graciela]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Predicción de crisis financieras utilizando redes neuronales artificiales: un ejercicio para la economía mexicana]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<page-range>1-235</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ohidul]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Haque]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Income Elasticity and Economic Development Methods and Applications]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>111-22</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s Dow Jones Indices</collab>
<source><![CDATA[S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdivia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Stephanie]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Determinants of the Index of Prices and Quotations on the Mexican Stock Exchange: Sensitivity Analysis Based on Artificial Neural Networks]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Global Journal of Business Research]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>27-32</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Van Tassel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Charles]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Analysis of Food Demand]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Retailing]]></source>
<year>1967</year>
<volume>43</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>38-43</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villar Corona]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marco Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Pronóstico del tipo de cambio peso-dólar utilizando redes neuronales artificiales]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<page-range>1-115.7</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wienclaw]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ruth]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Forecasting Methods for Management]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Research Starters -Business]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<page-range>1-6</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. Peter]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Neural Networks in Business Forecasting]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad del estado de Georgia]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
