<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-6346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Semestre Económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Semest. Econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-6346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Medellín]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-63462021000200320</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22395/seec.v24n57a15</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Diseño de un modelo predictivo para otorgar créditos]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Design of a Predictive Model for Granting Credits]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Desenho de um modelo preditivo para concessão de créditos]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar Vergara]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Gabriel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Universitario Veracruzano  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Veracruz ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>57</numero>
<fpage>320</fpage>
<lpage>347</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-63462021000200320&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-63462021000200320&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-63462021000200320&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es presentar evidencias sobre la evaluación de la probabilidad de incumplimiento en el pago de un crédito otorgado por los fondos de empleados de instituciones de educación superior de Medellín y Área Metropolitana en el periodo 2017-2019. Para determinar la probabilidad de pago de los créditos se estimó un modelo econométrico de regresión logística binaria. Las estimaciones permitieron evidenciar que de los 384 casos estudiados doscientos cuarenta (el 62,5 %) tiene probabilidad de pagar y ciento cuarenta y cuatro (el 37,5 %) presentan probabilidad de no pago de sus compromisos.  Clasificación JEL:  G17, G23  Contenido:  Introducción; 1. Estado del arte; 2. Marco teórico y conceptual; 3. Metodología; 4. Resultados; 5. Conclusiones; ; Referencias; Anexos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The objective of this article is to present evidence on the evaluation of the probability of default in the payment of a loan granted by employee funds of higher education institutions in Medellín and the Metropolitan Area in the period 2017-2019. To determine the probability of loan repayment, a binary logistic regression econometric model was estimated. The estimates showed that of the 384 cases studied, two hundred and forty (62.5 %) are likely to pay and one hundred and forty-four (37.5 %) are likely not to pay their commitments.  JEL classification:  G17, G23.  Content:  Introduction; 1. State of the art; 2. Theoretical and conceptual framework; 3. Methodology; 4. Results; 5. Conclusions; Rerefences; Annexes.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo O objectivo deste artigo é apresentar provas sobre a avaliação da probabilidade de incumprimento no pagamento de um empréstimo concedido pelos fundos dos empregados das instituições de ensino superior em Medellín e na Área Metropolitana no período 2017-2019. Para determinar a probabilidade de reembolso do empréstimo, foi estimado um modelo econométrico de regressão logística binária. As estimativas mostraram que dos 384 casos estudados, duzentos e quarenta (62,5 %) são susceptíveis de pagar e cento e quarenta e quatro (37,5 %) são susceptíveis de não pagar os seus compromissos.  Classificação JEL:  G17, G23.  Conteúdo:  Introdução; 1. Estado da arte; 2. Enquadramento teórico e conceitual; 3. Metodologia; 4. Resultados; 5. Conclusões; Referências; anexos.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Regresión logística binaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[riesgo de crédito]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[asignación de crédito]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sistema financiero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Binary logistic regression]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[credit risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[credit allocation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Finance system]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Regressão logística binária]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[risco de crédito]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[alocação de crédito]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Sistema financeiro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Colômbia]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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