<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-8705</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[CES Medicina]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[CES Med.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-8705</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad CES]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-87052022000300069</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21615/cesmedicina.6987</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Aplicabilidad de modelos predictivos de falla renal en enfermedad renal crónica: una revisión de alcance]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Usability of predictive models of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease: a scoping review]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Giraldo Castrillón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yessica]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arango]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Catalina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Molina]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Federico]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Segura]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ángela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad CES Facultad de Medicina Unidad de Gestión de Investigación e Innovación en salud]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad CES Facultad de Medicina División de Salud Pública]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad CES Facultad de Medicina División de Salud Pública]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad CES Escuela de Graduados ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>69</fpage>
<lpage>85</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-87052022000300069&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-87052022000300069&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-87052022000300069&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción: la identificación de los pacientes con mayor riesgo de progresar a falla renal es fundamental para la planeación del tratamiento en la enfermedad renal crónica, pero no ha podido llevarse a cabo consistentemente. Los modelos de predicción podrían ser una herramienta útil, sin embargo, su usabilidad en la Enfermedad Renal Crónica es limitada hasta ahora y no se comprenden muy bien las barreras y limitaciones.  Métodos: se desarrolló una revisión de alcance de la literatura disponible sobre modelos predictivos de falla renal o reglas de pronóstico en pacientes con Enfermedad Renal Crónica. Las búsquedas se realizaron sistemáticamente en Cochrane, Pubmed y Embase. Se realizó una revisión ciega e independiente por dos evaluadores para identificar estudios que informaran sobre el desarrollo, la validación o la evaluación del impacto de un modelo construido para predecir la progresión al estadio avanzado de la enfermedad renal crónica. Se realizó una evaluación crítica de la calidad de la evidencia proporcionada con el sistema GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation).  Resultados: de 1279 artículos encontrados, fueron incluidos 19 estudios para la síntesis cualitativa final. La mayoría de los estudios eran primarios, con diseños observacionales retrospectivos y unos pocos correspondieron a revisiones sistemáticas. No se encontraron guías de práctica clínica. La síntesis cualitativa evidenció gran heterogeneidad en el desarrollo de los modelos, así como en el reporte de las medidas de desempeño global, la validez interna y la falta de validez externa en la mayoría de los estudios. La calificación de la evidencia arrojó una calidad global baja, con inconsistencia entre los estudios e importantes limitaciones metodológicas.  Conclusiones: la mayoría de los modelos predictivos disponibles, no han sido adecuadamente validados y, por tanto, se consideran de uso limitado para evaluar el pronóstico individual del paciente con enfermedad renal crónica. Por lo tanto, se requieren esfuerzos adicionales para centrar el desarrollo e implementación de modelos predictivos en la validez externa y la usabilidad y disminuir la brecha entre la generación, la síntesis de evidencia y la toma de decisiones en el ámbito del cuidado del paciente.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Background:  the identification of patients at higher risk of progressing to kidney failure is essential for treatment planning in chronic kidney disease, but it has not been possible to do this consistently. Predictive models could be a useful tool, however, their usability in chronic kidney disease is limited and the barriers and limitations are not well understood.  Methods:  a scoping review of the available literature on ESRD predictive models or prognostic rules in chronic kidney disease patients was developed. Searches were systematically executed on Cochrane, MEDLINE, and Embase. a blind and independent review was carried out by two evaluators to identify studies that reported on the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model constructed to predict the progression to an advanced stage of chronic kidney disease. A critical evaluation of the quality of the evidence provided with the GRADE system (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) was made.  Findings:  of 1279 articles found, 19 studies were included for the final qualitative synthesis. Most of the studies were primary, with retrospective observational designs and a few corresponded to systematic reviews. No clinical practice guidelines were found. The qualitative synthesis showed high heterogeneity in the development of the models, as well as in the reporting of global performance measures, internal validity, and the lack of external validity in most of the studies. The evidence rating was of low overall quality, with inconsistency between studies and important methodological limitations.  Conclusions:  most of the available predictive models have not been adequately validated and, therefore, are of limited use to assess the individual prognosis of patients with chronic kidney disease. Therefore, additional efforts are required to focus the development and implementation of predictive models on external validity and usability and bridge the gap between generation, synthesis of evidence, and decision-making in the field of patient care.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[enfermedad renal crónica terminal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo predictivo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[validez externa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[usabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[toma de decisiones clínicas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[end stage renal disease]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prediction models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[external validation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[usability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[decision making]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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