<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0121-5612</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Colombia Internacional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[colomb.int.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0121-5612</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Departamento de Ciencia Política y Centro de Estudios Internacionales. Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de los Andes]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0121-56122024000200085</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.04</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Primarias presidenciales en Chile, 2013-2021: instituciones, participación electoral y resultados]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Presidential Primaries in Chile, 2013-2021: Institutions, Voter Turnout, and Results]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Primárias presidenciais no Chile, 2013-2021: instituições, participação eleitoral e resultados]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mauricio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Talca Escuela de Ciencia Política y Administración Pública Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Sociales]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>118</numero>
<fpage>85</fpage>
<lpage>113</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0121-56122024000200085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0121-56122024000200085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0121-56122024000200085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN:  Objetivo/contexto:  Este artículo analiza las elecciones primarias presidenciales en Chile desde 2013 hasta 2021. La ley establece que estas elecciones, a diferencia de otros países de América Latina, son voluntarias, simultáneas y vinculantes.  Metodología:  Se estudian las elecciones primarias presidenciales en tres dimensiones. Primero, las instituciones que las regulan; segundo, la participación electoral; tercero, los resultados. Para el análisis de las instituciones, se explica la Ley 20640. Para la participación electoral y los resultados de las elecciones primarias, se recurre al método estadístico, incluyendo un análisis descriptivo e inferencial de los datos. Esto último, fundamentalmente con modelos de regresión lineal múltiple y gráficos de valores predichos.  Conclusiones:  La participación electoral en primarias predice significativamente la participación en la elección general, y está fuertemente determinada por los niveles de pobreza y ruralidad de las comunas. En cuanto a los resultados, la experiencia chilena muestra que no siempre triunfan los candidatos extremos ideológicamente, y que en algunas ocasiones -como las elecciones de 2021- la relación entre el resultado de la primaria y el desempeño electoral de los candidatos en la primera vuelta está lejos de ser robusta.  Originalidad:  Este trabajo estudia tres ciclos electorales de primarias presidenciales en Chile y combina un análisis de las instituciones que regulan el proceso con la aplicación de modelos estadísticos para explicar la participación y los resultados electorales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT:  Objective/context:  This article analyzes the presidential primary elections in Chile from 2013 to 2021. As established by law, unlike in other Latin American countries, these elections are voluntary, simultaneous, and binding.  Methodology:  Presidential primary elections are studied in three dimensions: first, the institutions that regulate them; second, the electoral participation; and third, the results. For the analysis of the institutions, Law 20640 is explained. For electoral participation and the results of the primary elections, the statistical method is used, including a descriptive and inferential data analysis; the latter, mainly with multiple linear regression models and graphs of predicted values.  Conclusions:  Electoral participation in primaries significantly predicts participation in the general election and is strongly determined by the levels of poverty and rurality of the communes. Regarding the results, the Chilean experience shows that ideologically extreme candidates do not always triumph and that in some occasions-such as the 2021 elections-the relationship between the outcome of the primary elections and the candidates&#8217; electoral performance in the first round is far from robust.  Originality:  This work studies three electoral cycles of presidential primaries in Chile and combines an analysis of the institutions that regulate the process with the application of statistical models to explain turnout and electoral results.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[RESUMO:  Objetivo/contexto:  Neste artigo, são analisadas as eleições primárias presidenciais no Chile de 2013 a 2021. A lei estabelece que essas eleições, diferentemente de outros países da América Latina, são voluntárias, simultâneas e obrigatórias.  Metodologia:  As eleições primárias presidenciais são estudadas em três dimensões. Na primeira, as instituições que as regulam; na segunda, a participação eleitoral; na terceira, os resultados. Para a análise das instituições, é explicada a Lei 20640. Para a participação eleitoral e para os resultados das eleições primárias, é usado o método estatístico, que inclui uma análise descritiva e inferencial dos dados. Esta última, principalmente com modelos de regressão linear múltipla e gráficos de valores previstos.  Conclusões:  A participação eleitoral nas primárias prevê significativamente a participação nas eleições gerais e é fortemente determinada pelos níveis de pobreza e ruralidade das comunidades. Em termos de resultados, a experiência chilena mostra que os candidatos ideologicamente extremos nem sempre vencem e que, em algumas ocasiões - como nas eleições de 2021 -, a relação entre o resultado das primárias e o desempenho eleitoral dos candidatos no primeiro turno está longe de ser robusta.  Originalidade:  Neste estudo, são analisados três ciclos eleitorais de primárias presidenciais no Chile, combinando uma análise das instituições que regulam o processo com a aplicação de modelos estatísticos para explicar a participação e os resultados eleitorais.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[candidatos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Chile]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[elecciones primarias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[participación electoral]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[partidos políticos.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[candidates]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Chile]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[electoral participation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[political parties]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[primary elections.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[candidatos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Chile]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[eleições primárias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[participação eleitoral]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[partidos políticos.]]></kwd>
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</article-meta>
</front><back>
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