<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0121-7488</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ciencia en Desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ciencia en Desarrollo]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0121-7488</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0121-74882025000200135</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.19053/uptc.01217488.v16.n2.2025.17094</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Evaluación de la agregación en los modelos de Edad-Periodo-Cohorte (APC) con un enfoque Bayesiano]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Evaluation of aggregation in Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models with a Bayesian approach]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rendón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Simón Cuartas]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez Guevara]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Isabel Cristina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardona Jiménez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Johnatan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>135</fpage>
<lpage>139</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0121-74882025000200135&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0121-74882025000200135&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0121-74882025000200135&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Los modelos de regresión Poisson de Edad-Periodo-Cohorte, APC por su sigla en inglés, son utilizados en estudios de epidemiología para estimar el efecto de cada uno de estos factores en las tendencias de las razones de incidencia y mortalidad de diferentes enfermedades. Generalmente, se tiene la información sobre los casos observados o la mortalidad de una enfermedad resumidos en una tabla con dos entradas: el grupo de edad y el período calendario en que se registró el evento de interés. Uno de los retos que un investigador debe enfrentar en los diferentes contextos y escenarios que requieren aplicaciones de modelos APC es la agregación de los datos. En la mayoría de los estudios, la información disponible sólo se encuentra agregada ya sea por grupos de edades, por periodos o por ambas características. En este sentido sería pertinente evaluar el efecto que tiene esta agregación de la información tanto en la estimación de los efectos del modelo como en las predicciones obtenidas con éste. Se podría inferir que esta agregación, usualmente por periodos de 5 años o quinquenios, debe afectar de manera significativa la calidad de las predicciones, pues en este proceso se pueden perder tendencias o patrones estacionales. Así, en este trabajo se realiza un análisis sobre el impacto que tiene la agregación de datos de las incidencias (por periodos) en las proyecciones o predicciones futuras. En particular, se hace un estudio comparativo entre las tasas de mortalidad por tuberculosis para el caso de Colombia y se muestran proyecciones para tres agregaciones del periodo: quinquenios, trienios y anualidades.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Poisson Regression models of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) are employed in epidemiological studies to estimate the impact of each of these factors on the trends in incidence and mortality rates for various diseases. Typically, information on observed cases or mortality from a disease is summarized in a table with two entries: age group and calendar period in which the event of interest was recorded. One of the challenges researchers face in various contexts and scenarios requiring APC model applications is data aggregation. In most studies, the available information is aggregated either by age groups, periods, or both characteristics. In this regard, it would be relevant to assess the impact of this data aggregation on both the estimation of model effects and the predictions obtained from it. It could be inferred that this aggregation, usually done in 5-year periods or quinquennia, may significantly affect the quality of predictions, as trends or seasonal patterns may be lost in this process. Thus, this work conducts an analysis on the impact of aggregating incidence data (by periods) on future projections or predictions. In particular, a comparative study is carried out on tuberculosis mortality rates for the case of Colombia, and projections are shown for three period aggregations: five-year periods, three-year periods, and annuities.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos de Edad-Periodo-Cohorte (APC)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Enfoque Bayesiano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de agregación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Age-period-cohort (APC) models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian approach]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Aggregation analysis]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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