<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0123-3068</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Boletín Científico. Centro de Museos. Museo de Historia Natural]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Bol. Cient. Mus. Hist. Nat. Univ. Caldas]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0123-3068</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Caldas. Vicerrectoría de Investigaciones y Postgrados]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0123-30682024000200103</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17151/bccm.2024.28.2.6</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo matemático de la presencia del mono Zocay (Plecturocebus ornatus (Gray, 1866)) en un paisaje agropecuario]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mathematical model of the presence of the Zocay monkey (Plecturocebus ornatus (Gray, 1866)) in an agricultural and cattle raising landscape]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ladino-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lilia Mercedes]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guerrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sara Cristina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz-Moreno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Martha Lucía]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de los Llanos  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Villavicencio ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de los Llanos  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Villavicencio ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de los Llanos  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Villavicencio ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>28</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>103</fpage>
<lpage>127</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0123-30682024000200103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0123-30682024000200103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0123-30682024000200103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El mono Zocay (Plecturocebus ornatus) es un primate platirrino endémico que sólo se distribuye en los departamentos de Meta y parte de Cundinamarca en Colombia. Actualmente, se considera vulnerable a la extinción por pérdida de hábitat en su área de distribución y sus requerimientos ecológicos específicos. En la conservación de primates no se ha explorado ampliamente la modelación matemática para crear escenarios que permitan priorizar esfuerzos, en tanto que en otros grupos biológicos esta aproximación ha sido utilizada complementariamente en las estrategias de gestión de especies silvestres. El objetivo de este trabajo fue construir un modelo matemático de la dinámica de la presencia de P. ornatus en fragmentos de bosque dentro de un paisaje agropecuario, para contribuir a su conservación y la de su hábitat. Para ello, se analizó la cobertura boscosa en el municipio de San Martín (Meta) mediante digitalización en pantalla a escala 1:25.000 en ArcGIS 10.8 de imágenes satelitales Landsat entre 2013 y 2019, a su vez, la estructura del paisaje fue analizada con la extensión V-LATE 2.0. La presencia de P. ornatus fue monitoreada por observaciones focales en transectos dentro de fragmentos de bosque en un paisaje agropecuario influenciado por cultivos de ciclo corto, palma africana y ganadería extensiva. A partir de los datos se construyó un modelo matemático metapoblacional, dado que la especie puede establecer subpoblaciones en un paisaje fragmentado, su tasa de dispersión es baja y su dinámica podría estar definida por procesos locales de colonización y extinción. Dicha modelación, se realizó en Vensim PLE, asumiendo como supuestos que: 1) El aumento de la conectividad del paisaje incrementa la tasa de dispersión de primates; 2) El aumento del área y calidad de los fragmentos de bosque tienen un efecto positivo en la presencia de primates en un paisaje fragmentado. A partir del modelo se construyeron escenarios con diferentes grados de pérdida de área de cobertura forestal: escenario base o &#8220;business as usual&#8221;, es decir continúa con la tendencia actual; escenario de alta deforestación; escenario intermedio (conservación local, que involucra incrementos puntuales del área de cobertura forestal) y escenario pro-conservación (donde se aumenta la cantidad, calidad y conectividad del hábitat para la especie). A partir de las predicciones del modelo se puede evidenciar que en los escenarios base, intermedio y de alta deforestación, la persistencia de P. ornatus es baja por el efecto de la pérdida de hábitat disponible. Por ende, se concluye que P. ornatus tiene tendencia a desaparecer del paisaje agropecuario si la transformación del bosque en áreas de explotación agropecuaria se mantiene. Por tanto, es urgente aumentar la conectividad y cantidad de hábitat disponible con el fin de que P. ornatus pueda sobrevivir en el entorno antropizado.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The Zocay monkey (Plecturocebus ornatus) is a platyrrhine primate endemic to the Colombian departments of Meta and Cundinamarca. It is considered vulnerable to extinction due to habitat loss and its specific ecological requirements. In the realm of primate conservation, mathematical modeling has not been extensively explored to create scenarios that allow for prioritizing efforts, despite its use in other biological groups as a complementary tool in wildlife management strategies. The objective of this work was to construct a mathematical model of the dynamics of the presence of P. ornatus in forest fragments within an agricultural landscape, with the aim of contributing to its conservation and that of its habitat. To this end, the forest cover within the municipality of San Martín (Meta) was examined through on-screen digitization at a scale of 1:25,000 in ArcGIS 10.8, employing Landsat satellite images captured between 2013 and 2019. Concurrently, the landscape structure was analyzed using the V-LATE 2.0 extension. The presence of P. ornatus was monitored through focal observations in transects within forest fragments in an agricultural landscape influenced by short-cycle crops, African palm, and extensive cattle ranching. A mathematical metapopulation model was constructed from the data, given that the species can establish subpopulations in a fragmented landscape, its dispersal rate is low, and its dynamics could be defined by local colonization and extinction processes. This modeling was executed in Vensim PLE, operating under the following assumptions: 1) An augmentation in landscape connectivity is directly correlated with an increased dispersal rate of primates; and 2) An enhancement in both the area and quality of forest fragments exerts a favorable influence on primate population presence within a fragmented landscape. The model was then used to construct scenarios with varying degrees of forest cover area loss. These scenarios included a base scenario, representing the continuation of current trends (i.e., "business as usual"), a high deforestation scenario, an intermediate scenario (involving local conservation with occasional increases in forest cover area), and a pro-conservation scenario (where the quantity, quality, and connectivity of habitat for the species is increased). The model predictions indicate that P. ornatus exhibits a low probability of persistence in the base, intermediate, and high deforestation scenarios, attributable to the impact of habitat loss. Consequently, it is deduced that P. ornatus exhibits a propensity for extinction from the agricultural landscape in the event of the perpetuation of the conversion of forest areas into agricultural zones. It is imperative to prioritize the enhancement of connectivity and the augmentation of available habitat to ensure the survival of P. ornatus in the anthropized environment.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Primates]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo matemático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Paisaje agropecuario]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Conservación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Metapoblación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Primates]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mathematical model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Agricultural and cattle raising landscapes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Conservation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Metapopulation]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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