<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0123-3769</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Perspectiva Geográfica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Perspectiva Geográfica]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0123-3769</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0123-37692017000200085</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.19053/01233769.7603</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo bayesiano para el estudio de la enfermedad del dengue en el departamento de Atlántico, Colombia, años 2010 a 2013]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian model for the study of dengue disease in the department of Atlántico Colombia years 2010 to 2013]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Modelo bayesiano para o estudo da doença do dengue no departamento de Atlántico, Colômbia, anos 2010 a 2013]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Montoya González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Angie Andrea]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz Beltrán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fabián Gabriel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santa Guzmán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Fernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Ingeniero catastral y geodesta  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>85</fpage>
<lpage>104</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0123-37692017000200085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0123-37692017000200085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0123-37692017000200085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El propósito en este artículo es estudiar la relación entre los casos de dengue y las variables dadas por los datos sociales, geográficos y económicos de los 23 municipios del departamento del Atlántico, Colombia, mediante el uso de modelos espaciales completamente bayesianos para el período 2010 a 2013. Se analizaron 7786 casos de dengue presentados en los cuatro años de estudio, en los que se encontró que los municipios más afectados por cantidad de población fueron Tubará, Candelaria, Puerto Colombia, Baranoa, Polonuevo y Ponedera. Se escogió el mejor modelo por cada año de estudio, basados en el Criterio de Información de Desviación (DIC), se encontró que las variables afines a las características sociales presentes en las viviendas y el crecimiento desordenado del casco urbano fueron las que mayor influencia tuvieron en el aumento del número de casos de dengue. El modelo bayesiano permitió identificar la relación del dengue con factores fuera del sector de salud estableciendo áreas de mayor riesgo de enfermedad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This papers aims to study the relationship between dengue cases and the variables given by the social, geographic and economic data of the 23 municipalities of the department of Atlantico, Colombia, through the use of completely. It was possible to analyze 7.786 cases of dengue presented in the four years of study, finding that the municipalities most affected by amount of population were Tubará, Candelaria, Puerto Colombia, Baranoa, Polonuevo and Ponedera. The best model was chosen for each year of study, based on the Deviation Information Criterion (DIC), it was found that the variables related to the social characteristics present in the dwellings and the disordered growth of the urban center were those that had the greatest influence In the increase of the number of dengue cases. The Bayesian model allowed the identification of the relationship of dengue with factors outside the health sector, establishing areas of higher risk of disease.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é estudar a relação entre casos de dengue e as variáveis dadas pelos dados sociais, geográficos y econômicos dos 23 municípios do departamento de Atlántico, Colômbia, usando modelos espaciais completamente bayesianos para o período 2010 a 2013. Analisaram-se 7786 casos de dengue apresentados nos quatro anos de estudo, que constatou que os municípios mais afetados pelo tamanho da população foram Tubará, Candelaria, Puerto Colombia, Baranoa, Polonuevo e Ponedera. Se escolho o melhor modelo para cada ano de estudo, baseado no critério de Informação de Desvio (DIC), verificou-se que as variáveis relacionadas com características sociais presentes na habitação e o crescimento desordenado do casco urbano foram a maior influência no aumento do número de casos de dengue. O modelo bayesiano permitiu identificar a relação do dengue com fatores externos ao setor saúde, estabelecendo áreas de maior risco de doença.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Atlántico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dengue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[epidemiología]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estadística espacial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo bayesiano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Atlantico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dengue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[epidemiology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatial statistics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Atlantico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Colômbia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[dengue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[epidemiologia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[estatísticas espaciais]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[modelo bayesiano]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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