<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0123-4226</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista U.D.C.A Actualidad & Divulgación Científica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[rev.udcaactual.divulg.cient.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0123-4226</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0123-42262019000200021</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31910/rudca.v22.n2.2019.1368</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Cambio climático y recursos hídricos en Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Climate change and water resources in Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alarcón-Hincapié]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zafra-Mejía]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Echeverri-Prieto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lena]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas Facultad del medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá D.C. ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas Facultad del medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá D.C. ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas Facultad del medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá D.C. ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0123-42262019000200021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0123-42262019000200021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0123-42262019000200021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La presente investigación tuvo por objeto evaluar los posibles impactos que habría en la distribución espacial del recurso hídrico sobre el territorio colombiano, bajo dos escenarios de cambio climático, a mediados del siglo XXI. Para el efecto, se utilizaron dos indicadores hídricos ambientales (Índice de Aridez y Balance Hídrico), con los cuales, se estima y se cuantifica la oferta hídrica del territorio colombiano, a partir de datos climatológicos del período de referencia 1976-2005 y, posteriormente, utilizando los datos de las variables climatológicas de los escenarios RCP 4,5 y 6,0, de la tercera comunicación nacional de Colombia ante la convención marco de cambio climático. Los resultados de esta modelación arrojaron los siguientes resultados: el régimen hidrológico del país, se caracteriza por tener una escorrentía promedio de 1.644mm, con valores que van desde una escorrentía promedio de 100mm al año, en la península de la Guajira, hasta escorrentías mayores de 6.000mm, en el Pacífico. El índice de aridez modelado arrojó un valor promedio de 0,23, ubicando a Colombia en condiciones Moderadas y Excedentes de agua. Se presentarían reducciones significativas en el volumen de escorrentía hasta en un 18% en promedio para los dos escenarios. La menor reducción se daría en el escenario RCP 4,5, con un 12% de la escorrentía actual y la reducción más drástica, se presentaría en el RCP 6,0, hasta en un 18%. En cuanto al Índice de Aridez, se sugiere que el escenario más fuerte es el RCP 6,0, con un valor promedio de 0,50 lo que significa una mderada situación deficitaria de agua.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The possible impacts from the spatial distribution of the water resource over the Colombian territory are analyzed under two scenarios of climate change in the middle of the 21st century. For the effect, two environmental water indicators were used (Aridity index and Water Balance) to estimate, quantify and water supply of the Colombian territory, from the climate data during the period of reference 1976-2005 in spatial resolution of 900 meters. In this modeling, the water regimen of the country is characterized by its average runoff of 1644mm, with values that are between an annual average runoff of 100mm in the Guajira peninsula until higher runoffs of 6000 millimeters in the Pacific. The aridity index in such modeling generated an average of 0,37, putting Colombia in moderate conditions of aridity, which shows sectors with a high-water deficit such as the Guajira peninsula and in the north of Magdalena and Atlántico regions. Additionally, the climate variables for Colombia were taken by a regional climate modeling in two scenarios RCP 4,5 and 6,0 for the period 2011-2040 and the environmental water indicators were generated. Across a comparison between the indicators of the current (1976-2005) and future period 2011-2040, the changes that would appear in the water availability towards those periods in both scenarios were established. The results are summarized in: substantial reductions in the runoff volume in respect to the current values in an 18% average for all scenarios, the lowest reduction would appear in 4,5 with 12% of the current runoff and the most drastic reduction presents in 6,0 in the middle of the century until 18%. Regarding the aridity index, the most aggressive scenario is 6.0 with an average value of 0,50, which refers to a water deficit, while by the middle of the century 6,0 and 4,5 would locate the country in a moderate condition of water deficit.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[recursos hídricos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[balance hídrico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[índice de aridez]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water resources]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water balance]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[aridity index]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<label>1.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[AGRAWALA]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[FANKHAUSER]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change. Costs, Benefits and Policy Instruments]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<page-range>133</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[París ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[OCDE]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<label>2.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[ALARCÓN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[PABÓN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[El cambio climático y la distribución espacial de las formaciones vegetales en Colombia]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Colombia Forestal]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>171-81</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<label>3.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[DÖLL]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[KASPAR]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[ALCAMO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Computation of global water availabitily and water use at the scale of large drainage basins]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Mathematische Geologie]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<page-range>111-8</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<label>4.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[DRUMMOND]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[BILLEN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[JOAO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[FORREST]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Dynamic and Mobile GIS: Investigating Changes in Space and Time]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<page-range>344</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<label>5.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[ESTRELA]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[QUINTAS]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[El sistema integrado de modelización precipitación escorrentía (SIMPA)]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista de Ingeniería Civil- CEDEX]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>104</volume>
<page-range>43-52</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<label>6.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>ESTUDIO NACIONAL DEL AGUA, ENA</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<page-range>496</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Bogotá D.C. ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<label>7.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[GUO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[WANG]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[XIONG]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[YING]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[LI]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J. Hydrology]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>268</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-15</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<label>8.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[HENDRA]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[YASUHIRO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[HIROI]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[IBRAHIM]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[ATSUSH]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Development of Water Management Modeling by using GIS in Chirchik River Basin, Uzbekistan]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Procedia Earth and Planetary Science]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>6</volume>
<page-range>169-76</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<label>9.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>IDEAM</collab>
<collab>PNUD</collab>
<collab>MADS</collab>
<collab>DNP</collab>
<collab>CANCILLERÍA</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Nuevos Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Colombia 2011- 2100. Herramientas Científicas para la Toma de Decisiones - Enfoque Nacional - Departamental: Tercera Comunicación Nacional de Cambio Climático. Bogotá.]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<label>10.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Cambio Climático 2014. Informe de síntesis]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<page-range>176</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ginebra, Suiza ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<label>11.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[MAGRIN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[GAY]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[CRUZ]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[GIMÉNEZ]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[MORENO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[NAGY]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[VILLAMIZAR]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Latin America. Climate Change. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<page-range>976</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[UK ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<label>12.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[MENZEL]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[BURGER]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (southern Elbe, Germany)]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J. Hydrol.]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>267</volume>
<numero>1-2</numero>
<issue>1-2</issue>
<page-range>53-64</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<label>13.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[MUZIK]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A first-order analysis of the climate change effect on the flood frequencies in a sub-alpine watershed by means of a hydrological rainfall-runoff model]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J. Hydrol.]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>267</volume>
<numero>1-2</numero>
<issue>1-2</issue>
<page-range>65-73</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<label>14.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[TIAN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[WEN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[CH.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[HONG]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Global scientific production on GIS research by bibliometric analysis from 1997 to 2006]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J. Informetrics]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>65-74</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<label>15.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[TURC]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Le bilan d&#8217;eau des sols. Relation entre la precipitation, l&#8217;évaporation et l&#8217;écoulement]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ann. Agron.]]></source>
<year>1954</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<page-range>491-569</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<label>16.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>UNESCO</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Glosario hidrológico internacional]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<label>17.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[YATES]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Approaches to continental scale runoff for integrated assessment models]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J. Hydrology]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>201</volume>
<page-range>289-310</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<label>18.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[VÖRÖSMARTY]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[FEDERER]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[SCHLOSS]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Potential evaporation functions compared on US watersheds: implications for global-scale water balance and terrestrial ecosystem modeling]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J. Hydrol.]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>207</volume>
<numero>3-4</numero>
<issue>3-4</issue>
<page-range>147-69</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<label>19.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[YANG]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[FENG]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[HUANG]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[LIN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate-induced changes in crop water balance during 1960-2001 in Northwest China Agriculture]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ecosystems &amp; Environment]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>127</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>107-18</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
