<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0123-5923</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios Gerenciales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[estud.gerenc.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0123-5923</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Icesi]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0123-59232021000200188</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18046/j.estger.2021.159.4186</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Comportamiento delictivo en Medellín en tiempos de pandemia, un modelo espacio-temporal]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Criminal behavior in Medellin in times of the pandemic crisis, a spatio-temporal model]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Comportamento criminoso em Medellín em tempos de pandemia, um modelo espaço-tempora]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Londoño]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palacio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Esteban]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Preciado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Angélica]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Henao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Emilio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jessica]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Balbín]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diego]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Restrepo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Johan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gutiérrez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fabio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af8">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af9">
<institution><![CDATA[,Alcaldía de Medellín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>37</volume>
<numero>159</numero>
<fpage>188</fpage>
<lpage>199</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0123-59232021000200188&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0123-59232021000200188&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0123-59232021000200188&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo buscó identificar el efecto que tuvo la implementación del aislamiento social preventivo obligatorio en las dinámicas de seguridad y convivencia de Medellín, Colombia. Por medio de un modelo de series de tiempo estructural bayesiano, se calculó el peso que tuvo esta medida preventiva en la variación de los indicadores: homicidios, desplazamiento forzado intraurbano, hurto a personas, hurto de motos, hurto de carros, delitos sexuales, violencia intrafamiliar, riñas y lesiones personales. Los resultados mostraron que tuvo un impacto directo y significativo sobre el comportamiento de los indicadores considerados; se registraron aumentos entre el 9,8 y el 173% y disminuciones entre el 22,9 y el 85%, en comparación con las proyecciones realizadas para un escenario sin esta medida. Clasificación JEL: C1; I19; Y8.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper aimed to identify the effect that the implementation of preventive mandatory social isolation had on the dynamics of security and coexistence in Medellín, Colombia. Using a Bayesian structural time-series model, the weight of this preventive measure in the variation of the indicators was calculated: homicides, forced intra-urban displacement, robbery, motorcycles theft, car theft, sexual crimes, family violence, fights, and personal injuries. The results showed this measure had a direct and significant impact on the behavior of the indicators considered; there were increases between 9.8% and 173%, and decreases between 22.9% and 85%, compared to the projections without this measure.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Este artigo busca identificar o efeito que a implementação do isolamento social preventivo obrigatório -ASPO (em espanhol)- teve sobre a dinâmica da segurança e da convivência em Medellín (Colômbia). Utilizando um modelo de séries temporais estruturais bayesianas, foi calculado o efeito do ASPO na variação dos indicadores: homicídios, deslocamento intraurbano forçado, furto de pessoas, motocicletas e automóveis, crimes sexuais, violência doméstica, brigas e lesões corporais. Os resultados mostraram que o ASPO teve um impacto direto e significativo no comportamento dos indicadores considerados, registrando aumentos entre 9,8% e 173% e diminuições entre 22,9% e 85% em relação às projeções feitas para uma etapa sem ASPO.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crimen]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[seguridad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[aislamiento preventivo obligatorio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis bayesiano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[crime]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[security]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[preventive mandatory isolation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bayesian analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[crime]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[segurança]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[isolamento social preventivo obrigatório]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[análise bayesiana]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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