<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0123-5923</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios Gerenciales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[estud.gerenc.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0123-5923</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Icesi]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0123-59232021000200294</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18046/j.estger.2021.159.4467</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Propuesta de índice de regreso a la prepandemia COVID-19 para variables económicas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A proposal to measure economic time series return to pre-COVID-19 levels]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Proposta de índice de retorno ao COVID-19 pré-pandêmico para variáveis econômicas]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alonso-Cifuentes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julio César]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tapia-Pizo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fiorella Jessica Vanessa]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carabali-Mosquera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jaime Andrés]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Icesi  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Icesi  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Icesi  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>37</volume>
<numero>159</numero>
<fpage>294</fpage>
<lpage>302</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0123-59232021000200294&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0123-59232021000200294&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0123-59232021000200294&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este documento presenta una herramienta que permite a los analistas determinar si una serie mensual o trimestral ha regresado a los niveles del periodo prepandemia COVID-19. El índice de regreso a la prepandemia emplea modelos autorregresivos, con medias móviles estacionales que permiten calcular un límite inferior y superior para el valor esperado de la serie. De esta manera, el índice genera una zona en la que se puede afirmar, con un nivel de confianza dado, si la serie bajo estudio ha recuperado sus niveles históricos. Para ilustrar su funcionamiento, se emplean ocho diferentes series de la economía colombiana. Dos fortalezas de este índice son su fácil interpretación y el uso de solo los datos históricos de la serie bajo estudio. Clasificación JEL: B40; C18; C43.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This document presents a tool that allows analysts to determine whether a monthly or quarterly time series has returned to pre- COVID-19 levels. Index of return to pre-pandemic uses seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models to calculate a lower and upper limit for the expected value of the series. In this way, this index generates a zone for which analysts can affirm that the variable under study has recovered its historical levels with a given confidence level. To this, eight different series of the Colombian economy are used. Two strengths of this index are its ease of interpretation and needing only data from the series under study.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Este documento apresenta uma ferramenta que permite aos analistas determinar se uma série mensal ou trimestral tem voltado aos níveis do período pré-COVID-19. O índice de retorno pré-pandêmico utiliza modelos autorregressivos, com médias móveis sazonais que permitem o cálculo de um limite inferior e superior para o valor esperado da série. Dessa forma, o índice gera uma zona em que pode ser confirmado, com um determinado nível de confiança, se a série em estudo recuperou seus níveis históricos. Para ilustrar seu funcionamento, usam-se oito séries diferentes da economia colombiana. Dois pontos fortes desse índice são sua fácil interpretação e o uso de apenas os dados históricos das séries em estudo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[índice]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pre-COVID]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[coyuntura económica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[index]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[pre-COVID]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic situation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[índice]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[pré-COVID]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[situação econômica]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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