<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0124-0064</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Salud Pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. salud pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0124-0064</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Salud Publica, Facultad de Medicina - Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0124-00642018000300352</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/rsap.v20n3.42701</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Predicción espacio-temporal probabilista de la epidemia de dengue total y grave en Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Probabilistic spatial-temporal prediction of total and severe epidemic of dengue in Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Velásquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Prieto-Bohórquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Signed E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez-Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pardo-Oviedo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Correa-Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sandra C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza-Beltrán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fernán del Cristo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bravo-Ojeda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales-Pertuz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rojas-Avila]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nydia A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Flórez-Cárdenas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Milena]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Militar Nueva Granada  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Militar Nueva Granada  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hospital Militar Central  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Rosario  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Militar Nueva Granada  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Del Bosque  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hospital Militar Central  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af8">
<institution><![CDATA[,Clínica del Country  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af9">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Militar Nueva Granada  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A10">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hospital de Meissen ESE II Nivel de atención  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>352</fpage>
<lpage>358</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0124-00642018000300352&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0124-00642018000300352&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0124-00642018000300352&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Objetivo Establecer una nueva metodología predictiva de la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total anual de infectados de dengue por departamento con base en la teoría de la probabilidad.  Métodos Con base en los datos anuales de número de infectados por departamentos en el periodo 2005 -2010, se calculó la proporción entre casos de dengue grave respecto al total para cada año, y se construyeron espacios de probabilidad que evalúan estos eventos en rangos de 0,5 y 0,3. Se determinaron conjuntos de rangos y se calculó probabilidad, desviación media cuadrática y la diferencia entre ellas. Se realizó una predicción del rango de infectados para el 2011 con el promedio aritmético de los valores de los últimos dos años.  Resultados Se predijo correctamente el rango en el que se encuentra incluida la proporción de número de infectados de dengue grave sobre el total en cada departamento con una efectividad del 93,3% para el rango de 0,5 y de 86,7% para el de 0,3.  Conclusión Se evidenció una autoorganización matemática espacio temporal en la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total que permite establecer predicciones de utilidad para la toma de decisiones de salud pública.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Objective To establish a new predictive methodology to determine the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the annual total of dengue infections per department based on the probability theory.  Materials and Methods Based on annual data on the number of infected persons by department in the period 2005-2010, the proportion of cases of severe dengue was calculated with respect to the total for each year. Probability spaces were constructed to evaluate these events in the ranges 0.5 and 0.3. Sets of ranges were determined and probability, mean square deviation and the difference between them were estimated. A prediction of the range of infected people for 2011 was made using the arithmetic average of the values of the last two years.  Results The range in which the proportion of the number of people infected with severe dengue is included with respect to the total amount in each department was correctly predicted, with an effectiveness of 93.3% for the 0.5 range and 86.7% for the 0.3 range.  Conclusion A mathematical spatial-temporal self-organization was found in the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the total, which allows establishing useful predictions for decision-making in public health.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Probabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[epidemias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dengue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dengue grave (fuente: DeCS, BIREME)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[epidemics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dengue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[severe dengue (source: MeSH, NLM)]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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