<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0124-0064</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Salud Pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. salud pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0124-0064</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Salud Publica, Facultad de Medicina - Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0124-00642020000200123</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/rsap.v22.85977</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manrique-Abril]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fred G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Agudelo-Calderon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Chordá]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gutiérrez-Lesmes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oscar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Téllez-Piñerez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cristian F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Herrera-Amaya]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Giomar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Enfermería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Medicina Instituto de Salud Pública]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universitat Jaume I Departamento de Enfermería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de los Llanos Escuela de Salud Pública ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Villavicencio ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Santo Tomas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia Grupo de Salud pública ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>123</fpage>
<lpage>131</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Objetivo Desarrollar un modelo SIR pronóstico de la pandemia de COVID-19 en el territorio colombiano.  Métodos Se utilizó un modelo SIR con enfoque determinístico para pronosticar el desarrollo de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia. Los estados considerados fueron susceptibles (S), infecciosos (i) y recuperados o fallecidos (R). Los datos poblacionales se obtuvieron del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de estadística (Proyecciones de Población 2018-2020, difundida en enero de 2020) y los datos sobre casos diarios confirmados de COVID-19 del Instituto Nacional de Salud. Se plantearon diferentes modelos variando el número básico de reproducción (R0).  Resultados A partir de los casos reportados por el Ministerio de Salud se crearon cuatro ambientes o escenarios simulados en un modelo SIR epidemiológico, se extendieron las series de tiempo hasta el 30 de mayo, fecha probable del 99% de infección poblacional. Un R0 de 2 es la aproximación más cercana al comportamiento de la pandemia durante los primeros 15 días desde el reporte del caso 0, el peor escenario se daría en la primera semana de abril con un R0 igual a 3.  Conclusiones Se hacen necesarias nuevas medidas de mitigación y supresión en las fases de contención y transmisión sostenida, como aumento de la capacidad diagnostica por pruebas y desinfección de zonas pobladas y hogares de aislamiento.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Objective To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia.  Materials and Methods A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0).  Results Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3.  Conclusions  Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pandemia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[infecciones por coronavirus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[transmisión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[número básico de reproducción (fuente: DeCS, BIREME)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Pandemics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[coronavirus infections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[transmission]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[basic reproduction number (source: MeSH, NLM)]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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