<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0124-0064</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Salud Pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. salud pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0124-0064</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Salud Publica, Facultad de Medicina - Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0124-00642020000200132</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/rsap.v22n2.86432</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Predicciones de un modelo SEIR para casos de COVID-19 en Cali, Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Predictions of a SEIR model for COVID-19 cases in Cali-Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortega-Lenis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Delia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arango-Londoño]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Muñoz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edgar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuartas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Caicedo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mena]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torres]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miyerlandi]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fabian]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Departamento de Salud Pública y Epidemiología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[San Antonio TX]]></addr-line>
<country>U.S.A</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Facultad de Salud Escuela de Salud Pública]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Departamento de Salud Pública y Epidemiología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Secretaría de Salud Pública Municipal de Cali  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Secretaría de Salud Pública Municipal de Cali  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af8">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Facultad de Salud Escuela de Salud Pública]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>132</fpage>
<lpage>137</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200132&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200132&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200132&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Objetivo Predecir el número de casos de COVID-19 en la ciudad de Cali-Colombia mediante el desarrollo de un modelo SEIR.  Métodos Se utilizó un modelo determinista compartimental SEIR considerando los estados: susceptibles (S), expuestos (E), infectados (I) y recuperados (R). Los parámetros del modelo fueron seleccionados de acuerdo a la revisión de literatura. En el caso de la tasa de letalidad, se usaron los datos de la Secretaría de Salud Municipal de Cali. Se plantearon varios escenarios teniendo en cuenta variaciones en el número básico de reproducción (R0) y en la tasa de letalidad; además, se comparó la predicción hasta el 9 de abril con los datos observados.  Resultados A través del modelo SEIR se encontró que, con el número básico de reproducción más alto (2,6) y utilizando la letalidad calculada para la ciudad de 2,0%, el número máximo de casos se alcanzaría el primero de junio con 195 666 (prevalencia); sin embargo, al comparar los casos observados con los esperados, al inicio la ocurrencia observada estaba por encima de la proyectada; pero luego cambia la tendencia con una disminución marcada de la pendiente.  Conclusiones Los modelos epidemiológicos SEIR son métodos muy utilizados para la proyección de casos en enfermedades infecciosas; sin embargo, se debe tener en cuenta que son modelos deterministas que pueden utilizar parámetros supuestos y podrían generar resultados imprecisos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Objective To predict the number of cases of COVID-19 in the city of Cali-Colombia through the development of a SEIR model.  Methods A SEIR compartmental deterministic model was used considering the states: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The model parameters were selected according to the literature review, in the case of the case fatality rate data from the Municipal Secretary of Health were used. Several scenarios were considered taking into account variations in the basic number of reproduction (R0), and the prediction until april 9 was compared with the observed data.  Results Through the SEIR model it was found that with the highest basic number of reproduction [2,6] and using the case fatality rate for the city of 2,0%, the maximum number of cases would be reached on June 1 with 195 666 (prevalence). However, when comparing the observed with the expected cases, at the beginning the observed occurrence was above the projected, but then the trend changes decreasing the slope.  Conclusions SEIR epidemiological models are widely used methods for projecting cases in infectious diseases, however it must be taken into account that they are deterministic models that can use assumed parameters and could generate imprecise results.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Infecciones por coronavirus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pandemias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[número básico de reproducción (fuente: DeCS, BIREME)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Coronavirus infections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[pandemics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[basic reproduction number (source: MeSH, NLM)]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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