<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0124-0064</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Salud Pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. salud pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0124-0064</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Salud Publica, Facultad de Medicina - Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0124-00642020000200169</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/rsap.v22n2.86614</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[SARS-COV.2/COVID-19 en Colombia: tendencias, predicciones y tensiones sobre el sistema sanitario]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[SARS-C0V.2/COVID-I9 in Colombia: tendencies, predictions, and tensions about health system]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Correa-Cuadros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jennifer P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Muñoz-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas Departamento Ecología]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas Departamento de Ecología]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>169</fpage>
<lpage>177</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200169&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200169&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0124-00642020000200169&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Objetivo Analizar la evolución temporal de la primera etapa del COVID-19 en Colombia a través del modelo SIRD.  Métodos Se analizó la evolución temporal del COVID-19 según los individuos infectados en Colombia del 6 de marzo al 15 de abril de 2020. Se realizó el modelo SIRD modificando la tasa de transmisión (b) bajo tres escenarios: 1) cuarentena hasta el 1 de julio, 2) cuarentena flexible., hasta el 11 de mayo con un b del 4%, y 3) cuarentena flexible2 hasta el 11 de mayo con b del 8%, con el fin de predecir el número de casos totales y el 5% de infectados en UCI para contrastarlo con el número de camas y personal UCI.  Resultados Los escenarios mostraron que levantar la cuarentena el 11 de mayo significará un aumento en el número de infectados, entre 54 105 a 116 081 individuos con COVID-19. Así mismo, la rápida aceleración en la tasa de contagios se traduce en una mayor demanda de camas y personal en UCI: en el escenario de cuarentena flexible2 se colapsarían las 2 650 camas disponibles y se necesitaría de 5 intensivitas y 4 enfermeras por paciente al 1 julio.  Conclusión Las medidas de distanciamiento social obligatorias contribuyen al retraso de la saturación del sistema de salud; sin embargo, son difíciles de sostener en el tiempo desde una perspectiva económica. Por lo tanto, para tener una distensión de la cuarentena es necesario adoptar medidas para ampliar la capacidad del sistema de salud y así evitar su colapso.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Objective To analyze the temporal progress in the early stage of COVID-19 in Colombia using the SIRD model.  Methods We analyzed the temporal progress of COVID-19 based on the number of infected persons between March 6th and April 15th, 2020. The SIRD model was implemented with variation in the rate of transmission (b) in three ways. A. Quarantine until July 11. 2. B. Flexible quarantine, [b=4%]. C. Flexible quarantine2 [b=8%]. Consecutively, we aimed to predict the number of total cases and 5% of infected persons in ICU to match them with the hospital beds and ICU staff.  Results The results show that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase from 54 105 to 116 081 approximately, if the quarantine is lifted on May 11. If the infection rate increase, more hospital beds and a bigger ICU staff will be mandatory. The currently 2 650 beds won't be enough in the flexible quarantine2, and five intensive care specialist and four nurses per patient will be needed.  Conclusion Measures like mandatory social distancing help delay the saturation of the health care system. However, it's impracticable to maintain them due to a possible economic crisis. Therefore, it's necessary to take action to enhance the ability of the health care system to avoid a collapse.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pandemia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dinámica poblacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cuarentena]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[transmisión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[epidemiología (fuente: DeCS, BIREME)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[pandemic]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[population dynamics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[quarantine]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[transmission]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[epidemiology (source: MeSH, NLM)]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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